Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat covering Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties, after winning reelection with 57 percent in 2024. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 91 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s incumbency edge, and a July 2026 “Safe D” rating from Decision Desk HQ. The Republican primary produced nominee Jacqueline Auringer with limited visibility. Potential shifts could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually strong turnout mobilization, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$34,909 Vol.
$34,909 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
$34,909 Vol.
$34,909 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,706 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$2,203 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat covering Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties, after winning reelection with 57 percent in 2024. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 91 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s incumbency edge, and a July 2026 “Safe D” rating from Decision Desk HQ. The Republican primary produced nominee Jacqueline Auringer with limited visibility. Potential shifts could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually strong turnout mobilization, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$34,909End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat covering Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties, after winning reelection with 57 percent in 2024. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 91 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s incumbency edge, and a July 2026 “Safe D” rating from Decision Desk HQ. The Republican primary produced nominee Jacqueline Auringer with limited visibility. Potential shifts could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually strong turnout mobilization, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,909End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding position in New York’s 18th congressional district, a mid-Hudson Valley seat covering Orange County and portions of Dutchess and Ulster counties, after winning reelection with 57 percent in 2024. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 91 percent, reflecting the district’s partisan lean, Ryan’s incumbency edge, and a July 2026 “Safe D” rating from Decision Desk HQ. The Republican primary produced nominee Jacqueline Auringer with limited visibility. Potential shifts could arise from a national Republican midterm wave, an unforeseen scandal, or unusually strong turnout mobilization, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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