Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Senate race according to recent August polling averages that place him at 18-34% first-round support, well ahead of rivals. Traders assign him elevated implied probability for first place due to his statewide name recognition, alignment with the Liberal Party's right-leaning base in a state that has favored similar candidates, and visible campaign momentum including alliances with figures such as Capitão Contar. Lower-priced options including Valderi Garcia (PCO), Capitão Contar (PL), Vander Loubet (PT), and Soraya reflect their trailing poll numbers and narrower paths in a field with more than a dozen declared or potential contenders. No major late-breaking shifts have altered the current ordering in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedReinaldo Azambuja 78%
Valderi Garcia 7.0%
Capitão Contar 6%
Daniel Junior 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
78%
Valderi Garcia
7%
Capitão Contar
6%
Daniel Junior
5%
Roberto Oshiro
5%
Vander Loubet
5%
Soraya
3%
Valter da Comagran
3%
Beto do Movimento
3%
Luiz Lemes
3%
Reinaldo Azambuja 78%
Valderi Garcia 7.0%
Capitão Contar 6%
Daniel Junior 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Reinaldo Azambuja
$540 Vol.
78%
Valderi Garcia
$43 Vol.
7%
Capitão Contar
$55 Vol.
6%
Daniel Junior
$43 Vol.
5%
Roberto Oshiro
$114 Vol.
5%
Vander Loubet
$43 Vol.
5%
Soraya
$43 Vol.
3%
Valter da Comagran
$112 Vol.
3%
Beto do Movimento
$43 Vol.
3%
Luiz Lemes
$64 Vol.
3%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Senate race according to recent August polling averages that place him at 18-34% first-round support, well ahead of rivals. Traders assign him elevated implied probability for first place due to his statewide name recognition, alignment with the Liberal Party's right-leaning base in a state that has favored similar candidates, and visible campaign momentum including alliances with figures such as Capitão Contar. Lower-priced options including Valderi Garcia (PCO), Capitão Contar (PL), Vander Loubet (PT), and Soraya reflect their trailing poll numbers and narrower paths in a field with more than a dozen declared or potential contenders. No major late-breaking shifts have altered the current ordering in the past week.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,100End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Senate race according to recent August polling averages that place him at 18-34% first-round support, well ahead of rivals. Traders assign him elevated implied probability for first place due to his statewide name recognition, alignment with the Liberal Party's right-leaning base in a state that has favored similar candidates, and visible campaign momentum including alliances with figures such as Capitão Contar. Lower-priced options including Valderi Garcia (PCO), Capitão Contar (PL), Vander Loubet (PT), and Soraya reflect their trailing poll numbers and narrower paths in a field with more than a dozen declared or potential contenders. No major late-breaking shifts have altered the current ordering in the past week.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,100End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Reinaldo Azambuja (PL), the former Mato Grosso do Sul governor, holds the strongest position in the October 4, 2026, Senate race according to recent August polling averages that place him at 18-34% first-round support, well ahead of rivals. Traders assign him elevated implied probability for first place due to his statewide name recognition, alignment with the Liberal Party's right-leaning base in a state that has favored similar candidates, and visible campaign momentum including alliances with figures such as Capitão Contar. Lower-priced options including Valderi Garcia (PCO), Capitão Contar (PL), Vander Loubet (PT), and Soraya reflect their trailing poll numbers and narrower paths in a field with more than a dozen declared or potential contenders. No major late-breaking shifts have altered the current ordering in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions