**Forecast uncertainty around the marine layer and overnight radiative cooling is splitting trader sentiment on San Francisco’s September 9 low.** With historical September overnight lows averaging near 56°F, current model runs show divergence in marine-layer depth, fog coverage, and wind patterns that control how much the city cools after sunset. Stronger onshore flow and low stratus typically limit cooling to the mid-50s or above by trapping heat and moisture, while clearer skies, lighter winds, or any offshore component can allow greater temperature drops. The near-even odds between 55°F-or-below and 74°F-or-higher reflect this sensitivity: small shifts in the National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours could rapidly move implied probabilities. Traders are watching the next model cycles and marine-layer forecasts for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
74°F or higher 91%
55°F or below 89%
58-59°F 50%
60-61°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
89%
56-57°F
48%
58-59°F
50%
60-61°F
50%
62-63°F
50%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
50%
70-71°F
50%
72-73°F
50%
74°F or higher
91%
74°F or higher 91%
55°F or below 89%
58-59°F 50%
60-61°F 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
89%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
48%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
50%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
50%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
50%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$260 Vol.
28%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
50%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
50%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
50%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around the marine layer and overnight radiative cooling is splitting trader sentiment on San Francisco’s September 9 low.** With historical September overnight lows averaging near 56°F, current model runs show divergence in marine-layer depth, fog coverage, and wind patterns that control how much the city cools after sunset. Stronger onshore flow and low stratus typically limit cooling to the mid-50s or above by trapping heat and moisture, while clearer skies, lighter winds, or any offshore component can allow greater temperature drops. The near-even odds between 55°F-or-below and 74°F-or-higher reflect this sensitivity: small shifts in the National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours could rapidly move implied probabilities. Traders are watching the next model cycles and marine-layer forecasts for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty around the marine layer and overnight radiative cooling is splitting trader sentiment on San Francisco’s September 9 low.** With historical September overnight lows averaging near 56°F, current model runs show divergence in marine-layer depth, fog coverage, and wind patterns that control how much the city cools after sunset. Stronger onshore flow and low stratus typically limit cooling to the mid-50s or above by trapping heat and moisture, while clearer skies, lighter winds, or any offshore component can allow greater temperature drops. The near-even odds between 55°F-or-below and 74°F-or-higher reflect this sensitivity: small shifts in the National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours could rapidly move implied probabilities. Traders are watching the next model cycles and marine-layer forecasts for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty around the marine layer and overnight radiative cooling is splitting trader sentiment on San Francisco’s September 9 low.** With historical September overnight lows averaging near 56°F, current model runs show divergence in marine-layer depth, fog coverage, and wind patterns that control how much the city cools after sunset. Stronger onshore flow and low stratus typically limit cooling to the mid-50s or above by trapping heat and moisture, while clearer skies, lighter winds, or any offshore component can allow greater temperature drops. The near-even odds between 55°F-or-below and 74°F-or-higher reflect this sensitivity: small shifts in the National Weather Service or NOAA model guidance over the next 48 hours could rapidly move implied probabilities. Traders are watching the next model cycles and marine-layer forecasts for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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