Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a minimum temperature near 67–69°F in New York City on July 24, driven by modest overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF create the tight clustering of market probabilities across the 64–73°F bins, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can easily move the low by 2–3°F. With July climatological normals around 70°F, current conditions favor values slightly below average but remain sensitive to any late-day convective remnants or urban heat-island effects at the official Central Park observing site. Updated model runs and the evening forecast discussion will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 24?
68-69°F 29%
66-67°F 21%
70-71°F 20%
62-63°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
18%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
19%
66-67°F
21%
68-69°F
29%
70-71°F
20%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
1%
76°F or higher
1%
68-69°F 29%
66-67°F 21%
70-71°F 20%
62-63°F 19%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
57°F or below
$187 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$171 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$20 Vol.
18%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
19%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
21%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
29%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
20%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
19%
74-75°F
$42 Vol.
1%
76°F or higher
$112 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a minimum temperature near 67–69°F in New York City on July 24, driven by modest overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF create the tight clustering of market probabilities across the 64–73°F bins, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can easily move the low by 2–3°F. With July climatological normals around 70°F, current conditions favor values slightly below average but remain sensitive to any late-day convective remnants or urban heat-island effects at the official Central Park observing site. Updated model runs and the evening forecast discussion will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$521End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a minimum temperature near 67–69°F in New York City on July 24, driven by modest overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF create the tight clustering of market probabilities across the 64–73°F bins, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can easily move the low by 2–3°F. With July climatological normals around 70°F, current conditions favor values slightly below average but remain sensitive to any late-day convective remnants or urban heat-island effects at the official Central Park observing site. Updated model runs and the evening forecast discussion will be the next key inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$521End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a minimum temperature near 67–69°F in New York City on July 24, driven by modest overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, light winds, and dew points in the low-to-mid 60s that limit further temperature drops. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF create the tight clustering of market probabilities across the 64–73°F bins, as small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing can easily move the low by 2–3°F. With July climatological normals around 70°F, current conditions favor values slightly below average but remain sensitive to any late-day convective remnants or urban heat-island effects at the official Central Park observing site. Updated model runs and the evening forecast discussion will be the next key inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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