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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?

Jul 21

Jul 22

Jul 23

Jul 21

Jul 22

Jul 23

28°C 37%

27°C 34%

26°C 16%

29°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,290 Vol.

28°C 37%

27°C 34%

26°C 16%

29°C 11%

Polymarket
NEW

$13,290 Vol.

22°C or below

$234 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$221 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$647 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$462 Vol.

3%

26°C

$399 Vol.

16%

27°C

$4,571 Vol.

34%

28°C

$5,200 Vol.

37%

29°C

$547 Vol.

11%

30°C

$473 Vol.

1%

31°C

$229 Vol.

<1%

32°C or higher

$307 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's July climate typically features overnight lows of 26–28°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with high humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent HKO seasonal guidance projects normal to above-normal temperatures through September 2026, while short-range models for July 23 point to a minimum near 27°C amid light winds and possible scattered showers that could slightly suppress or elevate the reading depending on cloud cover. The closely matched 47.5% odds on extremes versus the 19–21% cluster around 27–28°C reflect genuine forecast spread in steering patterns and localized urban heat effects, with updated model runs expected to narrow the range before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,290
End Date
Jul 23, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's July climate typically features overnight lows of 26–28°C under the influence of the East Asian monsoon, with high humidity limiting radiative cooling overnight. Recent HKO seasonal guidance projects normal to above-normal temperatures through September 2026, while short-range models for July 23 point to a minimum near 27°C amid light winds and possible scattered showers that could slightly suppress or elevate the reading depending on cloud cover. The closely matched 47.5% odds on extremes versus the 19–21% cluster around 27–28°C reflect genuine forecast spread in steering patterns and localized urban heat effects, with updated model runs expected to narrow the range before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,290
End Date
Jul 23, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "28°C" at 37%, followed by "27°C" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?" is "28°C" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "27°C" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.