Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and light precipitation that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-autumn conditions for the region, where daytime highs around 22–24°C give way to overnight lows moderated by marine influence from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability for the 17–18°C range, while the leading 23°C-or-higher outcome (41.5%) appears anchored in trader caution over potential forecast revisions or localized urban heat effects before resolution. Updated NHC-style guidance and surface observations will refine these probabilities as the night approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
23°C or higher 83%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
24%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C or higher
83%
23°C or higher 83%
14°C 40%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
$117 Vol.
24%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$33 Vol.
22%
18°C
$39 Vol.
25%
19°C
$33 Vol.
22%
20°C
$33 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and light precipitation that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-autumn conditions for the region, where daytime highs around 22–24°C give way to overnight lows moderated by marine influence from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability for the 17–18°C range, while the leading 23°C-or-higher outcome (41.5%) appears anchored in trader caution over potential forecast revisions or localized urban heat effects before resolution. Updated NHC-style guidance and surface observations will refine these probabilities as the night approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$255End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and light precipitation that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-autumn conditions for the region, where daytime highs around 22–24°C give way to overnight lows moderated by marine influence from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability for the 17–18°C range, while the leading 23°C-or-higher outcome (41.5%) appears anchored in trader caution over potential forecast revisions or localized urban heat effects before resolution. Updated NHC-style guidance and surface observations will refine these probabilities as the night approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$255End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeasterly winds, extensive cloud cover, and light precipitation that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This aligns with typical early-autumn conditions for the region, where daytime highs around 22–24°C give way to overnight lows moderated by marine influence from the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Recent model runs show minimal disagreement, supporting the market’s elevated implied probability for the 17–18°C range, while the leading 23°C-or-higher outcome (41.5%) appears anchored in trader caution over potential forecast revisions or localized urban heat effects before resolution. Updated NHC-style guidance and surface observations will refine these probabilities as the night approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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