**Market-implied odds near 47% for a minimum of 19°C or higher versus 46% for 9°C or below on September 10 reflect substantial forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s overnight low.** Current ensemble guidance shows variability driven by cloud cover and southeasterly flow: clearer skies would enhance radiative cooling and favor lower minima near or below 9–11°C, while increased cloudiness or a moderating marine layer could keep temperatures closer to 14–16°C. Historical September averages place typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but spring transitions often produce 3–5°C spreads in model outputs depending on high-pressure positioning and wind strength. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and local runs, with resolution hinging on updated guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 10?
9°C or below 83%
19°C or higher 78%
11°C 37%
14°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
83%
10°C
22%
11°C
37%
12°C
21%
13°C
23%
14°C
23%
15°C
22%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
78%
9°C or below 83%
19°C or higher 78%
11°C 37%
14°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
$30 Vol.
83%
10°C
$30 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
37%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$25 Vol.
8%
18°C
$25 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$26 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds near 47% for a minimum of 19°C or higher versus 46% for 9°C or below on September 10 reflect substantial forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s overnight low.**
Current ensemble guidance shows variability driven by cloud cover and southeasterly flow: clearer skies would enhance radiative cooling and favor lower minima near or below 9–11°C, while increased cloudiness or a moderating marine layer could keep temperatures closer to 14–16°C. Historical September averages place typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but spring transitions often produce 3–5°C spreads in model outputs depending on high-pressure positioning and wind strength. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and local runs, with resolution hinging on updated guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$137End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds near 47% for a minimum of 19°C or higher versus 46% for 9°C or below on September 10 reflect substantial forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s overnight low.**
Current ensemble guidance shows variability driven by cloud cover and southeasterly flow: clearer skies would enhance radiative cooling and favor lower minima near or below 9–11°C, while increased cloudiness or a moderating marine layer could keep temperatures closer to 14–16°C. Historical September averages place typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but spring transitions often produce 3–5°C spreads in model outputs depending on high-pressure positioning and wind strength. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and local runs, with resolution hinging on updated guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$137End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds near 47% for a minimum of 19°C or higher versus 46% for 9°C or below on September 10 reflect substantial forecast uncertainty for Cape Town’s overnight low.** Current ensemble guidance shows variability driven by cloud cover and southeasterly flow: clearer skies would enhance radiative cooling and favor lower minima near or below 9–11°C, while increased cloudiness or a moderating marine layer could keep temperatures closer to 14–16°C. Historical September averages place typical overnight lows around 9–11°C, but spring transitions often produce 3–5°C spreads in model outputs depending on high-pressure positioning and wind strength. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and local runs, with resolution hinging on updated guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions