**Trader consensus on a "No" outcome for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the persistent impasse in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding.** Negotiations set a 60-day window that has elapsed without a final accord on core issues, including limits on enrichment activities, down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and IAEA verification access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September 2026, Iran continues to restrict full inspector access, leaving the status of its near-weapons-grade material unverifiable amid an unresolved broader conflict. This sustained diplomatic deadlock, combined with Iran's longstanding resistance to permanent cessation of enrichment capabilities, underpins the near-certain implied probability. A breakthrough in bilateral or mediated talks before the deadline, or a verifiable major concession on enrichment suspension, remains the primary realistic pathway that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
2% chance
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% chance
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus on a "No" outcome for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the persistent impasse in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding.** Negotiations set a 60-day window that has elapsed without a final accord on core issues, including limits on enrichment activities, down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and IAEA verification access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September 2026, Iran continues to restrict full inspector access, leaving the status of its near-weapons-grade material unverifiable amid an unresolved broader conflict. This sustained diplomatic deadlock, combined with Iran's longstanding resistance to permanent cessation of enrichment capabilities, underpins the near-certain implied probability. A breakthrough in bilateral or mediated talks before the deadline, or a verifiable major concession on enrichment suspension, remains the primary realistic pathway that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$64,609End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus on a "No" outcome for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the persistent impasse in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding.** Negotiations set a 60-day window that has elapsed without a final accord on core issues, including limits on enrichment activities, down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and IAEA verification access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September 2026, Iran continues to restrict full inspector access, leaving the status of its near-weapons-grade material unverifiable amid an unresolved broader conflict. This sustained diplomatic deadlock, combined with Iran's longstanding resistance to permanent cessation of enrichment capabilities, underpins the near-certain implied probability. A breakthrough in bilateral or mediated talks before the deadline, or a verifiable major concession on enrichment suspension, remains the primary realistic pathway that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,609End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on a "No" outcome for Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the persistent impasse in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding.** Negotiations set a 60-day window that has elapsed without a final accord on core issues, including limits on enrichment activities, down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and IAEA verification access to damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September 2026, Iran continues to restrict full inspector access, leaving the status of its near-weapons-grade material unverifiable amid an unresolved broader conflict. This sustained diplomatic deadlock, combined with Iran's longstanding resistance to permanent cessation of enrichment capabilities, underpins the near-certain implied probability. A breakthrough in bilateral or mediated talks before the deadline, or a verifiable major concession on enrichment suspension, remains the primary realistic pathway that could still shift the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions