**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record. This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.5%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
<1%
32–35
6%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
1%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.2%
32–35 5.5%
24–27 1.6%
$71,889 Vol.
$71,889 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$6,266 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,164 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,648 Vol.
<1%
32–35
$6,174 Vol.
6%
36–39
$8,153 Vol.
83%
40–43
$3,871 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,613 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record.
This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states.
Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,889End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record.
This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states.
Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,889End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House retirements and departures have reached approximately 37 members as of early August 2026**, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that traders have priced at 82.5%. Ballotpedia and contemporaneous trackers list 37 Republicans among the 60 total House incumbents who will not seek re-election, a pace that has held steady after earlier waves pushed the count past the 2018 record. This elevated total reflects standard midterm patterns for the president’s party, compounded by a narrow GOP majority, competitive districts, and a notable share of members pursuing Senate or gubernatorial bids rather than pure retirements. Recent announcements have added only modestly to the tally in the past several weeks, with limited further movement expected before filing deadlines in many states. Traders therefore assign low probability to ranges outside 36–39, as additional late exits would need to accelerate sharply or reverse course to shift the outcome materially.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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