Democrats currently hold three of Nevada’s four U.S. House seats, with incumbents Dina Titus in the 1st, Susie Lee in the 3rd, and Steven Horsford in the 4th—all rated Lean or Likely Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters despite narrow partisan voting indexes. The open 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, carries a stronger Republican tilt and is rated Likely or Solid Republican. Post-June primaries have clarified general-election matchups, yet the three Democratic-leaning districts remain competitive enough for modest swings in the national generic ballot or district-specific turnout to decide whether the party holds three seats or drops to two. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited probability assigned to a Democratic pickup of the 2nd for a total of four or to losses beyond one seat. Late-cycle polling shifts, candidate fundraising edges, or broader midterm dynamics could widen the gap between two- and three-seat outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?
3 43%
2 33%
1 14%
4 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
5%
1
14%
2
33%
3
43%
4
11%
3 43%
2 33%
1 14%
4 11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
0
$0 Vol.
5%
1
$0 Vol.
14%
2
$0 Vol.
33%
3
$0 Vol.
43%
4
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold three of Nevada’s four U.S. House seats, with incumbents Dina Titus in the 1st, Susie Lee in the 3rd, and Steven Horsford in the 4th—all rated Lean or Likely Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters despite narrow partisan voting indexes. The open 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, carries a stronger Republican tilt and is rated Likely or Solid Republican. Post-June primaries have clarified general-election matchups, yet the three Democratic-leaning districts remain competitive enough for modest swings in the national generic ballot or district-specific turnout to decide whether the party holds three seats or drops to two. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited probability assigned to a Democratic pickup of the 2nd for a total of four or to losses beyond one seat. Late-cycle polling shifts, candidate fundraising edges, or broader midterm dynamics could widen the gap between two- and three-seat outcomes before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold three of Nevada’s four U.S. House seats, with incumbents Dina Titus in the 1st, Susie Lee in the 3rd, and Steven Horsford in the 4th—all rated Lean or Likely Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters despite narrow partisan voting indexes. The open 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, carries a stronger Republican tilt and is rated Likely or Solid Republican. Post-June primaries have clarified general-election matchups, yet the three Democratic-leaning districts remain competitive enough for modest swings in the national generic ballot or district-specific turnout to decide whether the party holds three seats or drops to two. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited probability assigned to a Democratic pickup of the 2nd for a total of four or to losses beyond one seat. Late-cycle polling shifts, candidate fundraising edges, or broader midterm dynamics could widen the gap between two- and three-seat outcomes before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Nevada in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Nevada US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold three of Nevada’s four U.S. House seats, with incumbents Dina Titus in the 1st, Susie Lee in the 3rd, and Steven Horsford in the 4th—all rated Lean or Likely Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters despite narrow partisan voting indexes. The open 2nd district, vacated by retiring Republican Mark Amodei, carries a stronger Republican tilt and is rated Likely or Solid Republican. Post-June primaries have clarified general-election matchups, yet the three Democratic-leaning districts remain competitive enough for modest swings in the national generic ballot or district-specific turnout to decide whether the party holds three seats or drops to two. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with limited probability assigned to a Democratic pickup of the 2nd for a total of four or to losses beyond one seat. Late-cycle polling shifts, candidate fundraising edges, or broader midterm dynamics could widen the gap between two- and three-seat outcomes before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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