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icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

icon for Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politics·UK

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

40-45% 33%

35-40% 24%

45-50% 18%

50%+ 16%

Polymarket
NEW

40-45% 33%

35-40% 24%

45-50% 18%

50%+ 16%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for <30%

<30%

$77 Vol.

10%

icon for 30-35%

30-35%

$76 Vol.

9%

icon for 35-40%

35-40%

$90 Vol.

24%

icon for 40-45%

40-45%

$232 Vol.

33%

icon for 45-50%

45-50%

$116 Vol.

18%

icon for 50%+

50%+

$208 Vol.

16%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer's former seat is priced with the widest support on the 40-45% band, reflecting local polling and Camden ward results from May 2026 that showed the party at 38-39% against a strengthened Green challenge. Starmer's September resignation and replacement by Andy Burnham as party leader have introduced fresh national dynamics, while Labour's local candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest where the anti-Labour vote is split among multiple parties and independents. Recent ward-level data and by-election modeling indicate Labour remains ahead but with a narrower margin than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, as turnout patterns and candidate profiles shape the final distribution.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$799
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's vote share in the October 8 by-election for Keir Starmer's former seat is priced with the widest support on the 40-45% band, reflecting local polling and Camden ward results from May 2026 that showed the party at 38-39% against a strengthened Green challenge. Starmer's September resignation and replacement by Andy Burnham as party leader have introduced fresh national dynamics, while Labour's local candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski in a contest where the anti-Labour vote is split among multiple parties and independents. Recent ward-level data and by-election modeling indicate Labour remains ahead but with a narrower margin than the 48.9% recorded in 2024, as turnout patterns and candidate profiles shape the final distribution.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$799
End Date
Oct 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

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Will the Green Party candidate win 25-30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

28%
icon for Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

33%
icon for Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

79%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40-45%" at 33%, followed by "35-40%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" is "40-45%" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35-40%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Holborn and St Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.