Labour’s vote share in the 8 October Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains tightly contested around the mid-to-high 30s because the constituency’s May 2026 Camden local results already showed the party at 38-39 percent against a surging Green performance of 28-29 percent. Candidate selections finalized in mid-September have sharpened the contest, with Labour’s local leader Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski, whose profile and emphasis on housing and climate issues draw on the same progressive electorate that backed an independent challenger in 2024. Andy Burnham’s recent elevation as prime minister has stabilized national Labour messaging, yet the short campaign window and multi-candidate field continue to compress expected turnout and fragment opposition votes, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the 35-45 percent bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-45% 33%
35-40% 24%
45-50% 18%
50%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
8%
35-40%
24%
40-45%
33%
45-50%
18%
50%+
16%
40-45% 33%
35-40% 24%
45-50% 18%
50%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
8%
35-40%
$90 Vol.
24%
40-45%
$232 Vol.
33%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
18%
50%+
$208 Vol.
16%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour’s vote share in the 8 October Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains tightly contested around the mid-to-high 30s because the constituency’s May 2026 Camden local results already showed the party at 38-39 percent against a surging Green performance of 28-29 percent. Candidate selections finalized in mid-September have sharpened the contest, with Labour’s local leader Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski, whose profile and emphasis on housing and climate issues draw on the same progressive electorate that backed an independent challenger in 2024. Andy Burnham’s recent elevation as prime minister has stabilized national Labour messaging, yet the short campaign window and multi-candidate field continue to compress expected turnout and fragment opposition votes, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the 35-45 percent bands.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$799End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour’s vote share in the 8 October Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains tightly contested around the mid-to-high 30s because the constituency’s May 2026 Camden local results already showed the party at 38-39 percent against a surging Green performance of 28-29 percent. Candidate selections finalized in mid-September have sharpened the contest, with Labour’s local leader Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski, whose profile and emphasis on housing and climate issues draw on the same progressive electorate that backed an independent challenger in 2024. Andy Burnham’s recent elevation as prime minister has stabilized national Labour messaging, yet the short campaign window and multi-candidate field continue to compress expected turnout and fragment opposition votes, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the 35-45 percent bands.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$799End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labour’s vote share in the 8 October Holborn and St Pancras by-election remains tightly contested around the mid-to-high 30s because the constituency’s May 2026 Camden local results already showed the party at 38-39 percent against a surging Green performance of 28-29 percent. Candidate selections finalized in mid-September have sharpened the contest, with Labour’s local leader Sagal Abdi-Wali facing Green Party leader Zack Polanski, whose profile and emphasis on housing and climate issues draw on the same progressive electorate that backed an independent challenger in 2024. Andy Burnham’s recent elevation as prime minister has stabilized national Labour messaging, yet the short campaign window and multi-candidate field continue to compress expected turnout and fragment opposition votes, leaving traders assigning the highest probabilities to the 35-45 percent bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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