Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Camden Council leader, enters the 8 October by-election with strong local recognition and a record on housing and social services, yet the seat shows increased competition after the Greens secured nearly 29% in the May 2026 Camden locals. Green leader Zack Polanski's national profile and focus on climate and progressive issues position his party to challenge directly, with projections placing Labour near 36% and Greens around 31%. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and independents, risks vote fragmentation that could compress Labour's share below historic levels. Traders appear to weigh Labour's organisational edge and the new national leadership context against these dynamics when pricing the 40-45% band as the plurality outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 18%
50%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
11%
30-35%
10%
35-40%
22%
40-45%
33%
45-50%
18%
50%+
15%
40-45% 33%
35-40% 22%
45-50% 18%
50%+ 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<30%
$77 Vol.
11%
30-35%
$76 Vol.
10%
35-40%
$90 Vol.
22%
40-45%
$232 Vol.
33%
45-50%
$116 Vol.
18%
50%+
$208 Vol.
15%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Camden Council leader, enters the 8 October by-election with strong local recognition and a record on housing and social services, yet the seat shows increased competition after the Greens secured nearly 29% in the May 2026 Camden locals. Green leader Zack Polanski's national profile and focus on climate and progressive issues position his party to challenge directly, with projections placing Labour near 36% and Greens around 31%. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and independents, risks vote fragmentation that could compress Labour's share below historic levels. Traders appear to weigh Labour's organisational edge and the new national leadership context against these dynamics when pricing the 40-45% band as the plurality outcome.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$799End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Camden Council leader, enters the 8 October by-election with strong local recognition and a record on housing and social services, yet the seat shows increased competition after the Greens secured nearly 29% in the May 2026 Camden locals. Green leader Zack Polanski's national profile and focus on climate and progressive issues position his party to challenge directly, with projections placing Labour near 36% and Greens around 31%. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and independents, risks vote fragmentation that could compress Labour's share below historic levels. Traders appear to weigh Labour's organisational edge and the new national leadership context against these dynamics when pricing the 40-45% band as the plurality outcome.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$799End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Camden Council leader, enters the 8 October by-election with strong local recognition and a record on housing and social services, yet the seat shows increased competition after the Greens secured nearly 29% in the May 2026 Camden locals. Green leader Zack Polanski's national profile and focus on climate and progressive issues position his party to challenge directly, with projections placing Labour near 36% and Greens around 31%. A crowded field of 15 candidates, including Reform UK, the Workers Party, and independents, risks vote fragmentation that could compress Labour's share below historic levels. Traders appear to weigh Labour's organisational edge and the new national leadership context against these dynamics when pricing the 40-45% band as the plurality outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions