The contest in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a two-way race between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski, whose selection on 11 September and local backing from figures such as Andrew Feinstein have concentrated Green support. Local election results in May showed the Greens on 28.8 percent against Labour’s 38.8 percent, while recent projections place the Greens near 31 percent on 8 October. This positioning, combined with the party’s recent council by-election gains in London and Polanski’s high-profile doorstep campaign, keeps the 25–35 percent range tightly contested in trader pricing. Lower or higher outcomes would require sharper shifts in turnout or late swings away from Labour’s local base.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated30-35% 28%
25-30% 27%
20-25% 26%
<20% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
14%
20-25%
26%
25-30%
27%
30-35%
28%
35-40%
12%
40%+
3%
30-35% 28%
25-30% 27%
20-25% 26%
<20% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 8, 2026
<20%
$349 Vol.
14%
20-25%
$114 Vol.
26%
25-30%
$273 Vol.
27%
30-35%
$134 Vol.
28%
35-40%
$114 Vol.
12%
40%+
$120 Vol.
3%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a two-way race between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski, whose selection on 11 September and local backing from figures such as Andrew Feinstein have concentrated Green support. Local election results in May showed the Greens on 28.8 percent against Labour’s 38.8 percent, while recent projections place the Greens near 31 percent on 8 October. This positioning, combined with the party’s recent council by-election gains in London and Polanski’s high-profile doorstep campaign, keeps the 25–35 percent range tightly contested in trader pricing. Lower or higher outcomes would require sharper shifts in turnout or late swings away from Labour’s local base.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,105End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The contest in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a two-way race between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski, whose selection on 11 September and local backing from figures such as Andrew Feinstein have concentrated Green support. Local election results in May showed the Greens on 28.8 percent against Labour’s 38.8 percent, while recent projections place the Greens near 31 percent on 8 October. This positioning, combined with the party’s recent council by-election gains in London and Polanski’s high-profile doorstep campaign, keeps the 25–35 percent range tightly contested in trader pricing. Lower or higher outcomes would require sharper shifts in turnout or late swings away from Labour’s local base.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volume
$1,105End Date
Oct 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The contest in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped into a two-way race between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski, whose selection on 11 September and local backing from figures such as Andrew Feinstein have concentrated Green support. Local election results in May showed the Greens on 28.8 percent against Labour’s 38.8 percent, while recent projections place the Greens near 31 percent on 8 October. This positioning, combined with the party’s recent council by-election gains in London and Polanski’s high-profile doorstep campaign, keeps the 25–35 percent range tightly contested in trader pricing. Lower or higher outcomes would require sharper shifts in turnout or late swings away from Labour’s local base.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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