Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on July 22. Modest southerly flow and limited cloud cover favor the upper end of this range, while any increase in boundary-layer moisture or brief convective activity could cap readings at 22 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects the narrow spread in short-range guidance and the resolution threshold of 1 °C increments. Updated model runs and 48-hour verification data expected tomorrow will further constrain the outcome before settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 22?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 22?
22°C 45%
23°C 43%
21°C 9%
24°C 5.7%
NEW
$10,140 Vol.
NEW
$10,140 Vol.
Jul 22, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
9%
22°C
45%
23°C
43%
24°C
6%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
22°C 45%
23°C 43%
21°C 9%
24°C 5.7%
NEW
$10,140 Vol.
NEW
$10,140 Vol.
Jul 22, 2026
17°C or below
$678 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,514 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$440 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$520 Vol.
1%
21°C
$846 Vol.
9%
22°C
$850 Vol.
45%
23°C
$1,114 Vol.
43%
24°C
$1,318 Vol.
6%
25°C
$299 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$310 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$254 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on July 22. Modest southerly flow and limited cloud cover favor the upper end of this range, while any increase in boundary-layer moisture or brief convective activity could cap readings at 22 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects the narrow spread in short-range guidance and the resolution threshold of 1 °C increments. Updated model runs and 48-hour verification data expected tomorrow will further constrain the outcome before settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$10,140End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on July 22. Modest southerly flow and limited cloud cover favor the upper end of this range, while any increase in boundary-layer moisture or brief convective activity could cap readings at 22 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects the narrow spread in short-range guidance and the resolution threshold of 1 °C increments. Updated model runs and 48-hour verification data expected tomorrow will further constrain the outcome before settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,140End Date
Jul 22, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over central Europe, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 22–23 °C in Warsaw on July 22. Modest southerly flow and limited cloud cover favor the upper end of this range, while any increase in boundary-layer moisture or brief convective activity could cap readings at 22 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around these values reflects the narrow spread in short-range guidance and the resolution threshold of 1 °C increments. Updated model runs and 48-hour verification data expected tomorrow will further constrain the outcome before settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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