**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 26?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 26?
32°C 53%
31°C 27%
33°C 15%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
6%
30°C
7%
31°C
27%
32°C
53%
33°C
15%
34°C
2%
35°C
2%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 53%
31°C 27%
33°C 15%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
27°C or below
$25 Vol.
2%
28°C
$35 Vol.
2%
29°C
$56 Vol.
6%
30°C
$10 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,177 Vol.
27%
32°C
$683 Vol.
53%
33°C
$54 Vol.
15%
34°C
$20 Vol.
2%
35°C
$123 Vol.
2%
36°C
$137 Vol.
2%
37°C or higher
$657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,730End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,730End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from global models and European agencies centers on a 31–32 °C maximum for Madrid on 26 July under a broad subtropical ridge advecting warm air masses across the Iberian Peninsula.** Recent model runs (ECMWF IFS and GFS) show limited spread in 2 m temperature fields, with surface highs tempered by light northeasterly flow and modest diurnal mixing; this places the most probable outcomes squarely at the market’s leading prices (43 % for 31 °C, 36.5 % for 32 °C). A heatwave peaked on 19 July with an observed 36 °C, but subsequent cooling and stabilization have narrowed the tail risk for 33 °C or higher to roughly 12 %. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow uncertainty band between official guidance (AEMET, Met Office) and ensemble variability, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the Retiro station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions