Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on July 26 will likely settle near 24–25°C, reflecting typical late-July conditions with high humidity suppressing radiative cooling and the urban heat island effect retaining warmth overnight. Cloudy skies and light winds expected through the weekend further limit temperature drops, while nearby model runs show minor variations around 23–26°C tied to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. These factors create tight clustering in market-implied odds near the historical July nighttime baseline of 23–25°C, with traders weighing short-term forecast updates against the narrow range of plausible outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 26?
25°C 45%
24°C 30%
26°C 17%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
8%
24°C
30%
25°C
45%
26°C
17%
27°C
8%
28°C
11%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
25°C 45%
24°C 30%
26°C 17%
28°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
20°C or below
$52 Vol.
1%
21°C
$28 Vol.
2%
22°C
$10 Vol.
4%
23°C
$10 Vol.
8%
24°C
$84 Vol.
30%
25°C
$20 Vol.
45%
26°C
$141 Vol.
17%
27°C
$0 Vol.
8%
28°C
$305 Vol.
11%
29°C
$58 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on July 26 will likely settle near 24–25°C, reflecting typical late-July conditions with high humidity suppressing radiative cooling and the urban heat island effect retaining warmth overnight. Cloudy skies and light winds expected through the weekend further limit temperature drops, while nearby model runs show minor variations around 23–26°C tied to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. These factors create tight clustering in market-implied odds near the historical July nighttime baseline of 23–25°C, with traders weighing short-term forecast updates against the narrow range of plausible outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$782End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on July 26 will likely settle near 24–25°C, reflecting typical late-July conditions with high humidity suppressing radiative cooling and the urban heat island effect retaining warmth overnight. Cloudy skies and light winds expected through the weekend further limit temperature drops, while nearby model runs show minor variations around 23–26°C tied to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. These factors create tight clustering in market-implied odds near the historical July nighttime baseline of 23–25°C, with traders weighing short-term forecast updates against the narrow range of plausible outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$782End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's minimum temperature on July 26 will likely settle near 24–25°C, reflecting typical late-July conditions with high humidity suppressing radiative cooling and the urban heat island effect retaining warmth overnight. Cloudy skies and light winds expected through the weekend further limit temperature drops, while nearby model runs show minor variations around 23–26°C tied to precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. These factors create tight clustering in market-implied odds near the historical July nighttime baseline of 23–25°C, with traders weighing short-term forecast updates against the narrow range of plausible outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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