**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.** Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow. This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 26?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 26?
29°C 43%
28°C 23%
30°C 22%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
6%
28°C
23%
29°C
43%
30°C
22%
31°C
9%
32°C
3%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 43%
28°C 23%
30°C 22%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
24°C or below
$781 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,246 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$503 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$984 Vol.
6%
28°C
$542 Vol.
23%
29°C
$1,017 Vol.
43%
30°C
$780 Vol.
22%
31°C
$478 Vol.
9%
32°C
$582 Vol.
3%
33°C
$575 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.**
Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow.
This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$8,013End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.**
Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow.
This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,013End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s July 26 maximum temperature centers on 28–30°C because a developing tropical low east of the Philippines is forecast to bring heavy squally showers and thunderstorms that day, moderating peak heat.** Typical July conditions feature highs near 31–32°C under strong solar heating and high humidity, but increased cloud cover and rainfall from the approaching system would reduce surface insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Official outlooks from the Hong Kong Observatory already indicate normal-to-above-normal temperatures for the month amid background warming, yet short-range guidance shows model spread on the low’s exact track and intensification—some runs favor a more northerly path with less direct impact, others suggest stronger onshore flow. This uncertainty keeps probabilities clustered around 29°C (market leader) while allowing meaningful shares for 28°C and 30°C; extremes above 32°C or below 27°C remain low-probability given the climatological baseline and limited time for major shifts before resolution. New forecast updates from the Observatory and global models over the next 48 hours will be the key drivers of any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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