Recent polling from mid-September places Lula’s first-round support in the mid-to-high 30s, with figures ranging from 36% to 42% across Datafolha, Quaest, Nexus, MDA, and Indexa surveys conducted between September 8 and 13. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s, while smaller candidates split the remainder and undecided or blank ballots remain in double digits. The race stays close because both frontrunners carry elevated rejection rates near 55%, government approval has held steady around 43%, and late shifts in turnout or consolidation of centrist and evangelical voters could move Lula’s share across the 38–44% thresholds priced by traders. The October 4 first-round vote and any subsequent runoff dynamics continue to anchor the market’s narrow spread between the 41–44% and 44%+ bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated44%+ 42%
41-44% 36%
38-41% 15%
<35% 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
5%
35-38%
5%
38-41%
15%
41-44%
36%
44%+
42%
44%+ 42%
41-44% 36%
38-41% 15%
<35% 5.1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$348 Vol.
5%
35-38%
$348 Vol.
5%
38-41%
$413 Vol.
15%
41-44%
$1,016 Vol.
36%
44%+
$1,177 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Lula’s first-round support in the mid-to-high 30s, with figures ranging from 36% to 42% across Datafolha, Quaest, Nexus, MDA, and Indexa surveys conducted between September 8 and 13. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s, while smaller candidates split the remainder and undecided or blank ballots remain in double digits. The race stays close because both frontrunners carry elevated rejection rates near 55%, government approval has held steady around 43%, and late shifts in turnout or consolidation of centrist and evangelical voters could move Lula’s share across the 38–44% thresholds priced by traders. The October 4 first-round vote and any subsequent runoff dynamics continue to anchor the market’s narrow spread between the 41–44% and 44%+ bins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,302End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places Lula’s first-round support in the mid-to-high 30s, with figures ranging from 36% to 42% across Datafolha, Quaest, Nexus, MDA, and Indexa surveys conducted between September 8 and 13. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s, while smaller candidates split the remainder and undecided or blank ballots remain in double digits. The race stays close because both frontrunners carry elevated rejection rates near 55%, government approval has held steady around 43%, and late shifts in turnout or consolidation of centrist and evangelical voters could move Lula’s share across the 38–44% thresholds priced by traders. The October 4 first-round vote and any subsequent runoff dynamics continue to anchor the market’s narrow spread between the 41–44% and 44%+ bins.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,302End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September places Lula’s first-round support in the mid-to-high 30s, with figures ranging from 36% to 42% across Datafolha, Quaest, Nexus, MDA, and Indexa surveys conducted between September 8 and 13. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s, while smaller candidates split the remainder and undecided or blank ballots remain in double digits. The race stays close because both frontrunners carry elevated rejection rates near 55%, government approval has held steady around 43%, and late shifts in turnout or consolidation of centrist and evangelical voters could move Lula’s share across the 38–44% thresholds priced by traders. The October 4 first-round vote and any subsequent runoff dynamics continue to anchor the market’s narrow spread between the 41–44% and 44%+ bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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