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Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros 86%

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 40%

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado 40%

Diana Von Borstel Luna 38%

Polymarket
NEW

Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros 86%

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 40%

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado 40%

Diana Von Borstel Luna 38%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

$46 Vol.

86%

icon for Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

$46 Vol.

40%

icon for Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

$46 Vol.

40%

icon for Diana Von Borstel Luna

Diana Von Borstel Luna

$46 Vol.

38%

icon for José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

$46 Vol.

36%

icon for Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

$46 Vol.

36%

icon for Manuel Cota Cárdenas

Manuel Cota Cárdenas

$46 Vol.

35%

icon for Susana Zataraín García

Susana Zataraín García

$46 Vol.

34%

icon for José Saúl González Núñez

José Saúl González Núñez

$46 Vol.

33%

icon for Ricardo Barroso Agramont

Ricardo Barroso Agramont

$46 Vol.

30%

icon for Roxana Higuera

Roxana Higuera

$46 Vol.

28%

icon for Fabricio del Castillo

Fabricio del Castillo

$46 Vol.

26%

icon for Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

$46 Vol.

26%

icon for Antonio Manríquez

Antonio Manríquez

$46 Vol.

19%

icon for Milena Quiroga Romero

Milena Quiroga Romero

$66 Vol.

19%

icon for Christian Agúndez Gómez

Christian Agúndez Gómez

$46 Vol.

18%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The fragmented probabilities in this Baja California Sur gubernatorial market reflect the early stage of the 2027 contest, with Morena holding a clear party-level lead in recent July-August 2026 polls at around 39 percent but no individual aspirant consolidating broad support. Internal party surveys show shifting preferences among contenders such as Milena Quiroga Romero and Christian Agúndez Gómez, alongside lower backing for figures like Manuel Cota Cárdenas and José Saúl González Núñez, keeping individual odds tightly clustered near or below 50 percent. A wide field of potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with the absence of decisive primaries or major endorsements, sustains trader caution. Upcoming party conventions or new polling on candidate viability could widen gaps by clarifying frontrunners ahead of the general election.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$761
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The fragmented probabilities in this Baja California Sur gubernatorial market reflect the early stage of the 2027 contest, with Morena holding a clear party-level lead in recent July-August 2026 polls at around 39 percent but no individual aspirant consolidating broad support. Internal party surveys show shifting preferences among contenders such as Milena Quiroga Romero and Christian Agúndez Gómez, alongside lower backing for figures like Manuel Cota Cárdenas and José Saúl González Núñez, keeping individual odds tightly clustered near or below 50 percent. A wide field of potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with the absence of decisive primaries or major endorsements, sustains trader caution. Upcoming party conventions or new polling on candidate viability could widen gaps by clarifying frontrunners ahead of the general election.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$761
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros" at 43%, followed by "Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is "Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.