Recent record ocean warmth and the rapid intensification of a strong El Niño event represent the main drivers behind trader positioning near 1.38–1.45°C for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. Sea surface temperatures reached a new daily high of 21.1°C in late August, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C amid forecasts of a potentially historic event peaking later in the year. This adds to the background warming trend, though model spread and timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce meaningful uncertainty for the precise August value. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus highlights ongoing ocean heat content increases, with traders weighing these factors against historical analogs for monthly anomalies around 1.4°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
4%
1.30–1.33ºC
2%
1.34–1.37ºC
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
47%
>1.45ºC
15%
1.38–1.41ºC 37%
1.42–1.45ºC 34%
>1.45ºC 10%
1.34–1.37ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$51 Vol.
4%
1.30–1.33ºC
$605 Vol.
2%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,479 Vol.
8%
1.38–1.41ºC
$215 Vol.
41%
1.42–1.45ºC
$726 Vol.
47%
>1.45ºC
$256 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record ocean warmth and the rapid intensification of a strong El Niño event represent the main drivers behind trader positioning near 1.38–1.45°C for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. Sea surface temperatures reached a new daily high of 21.1°C in late August, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C amid forecasts of a potentially historic event peaking later in the year. This adds to the background warming trend, though model spread and timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce meaningful uncertainty for the precise August value. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus highlights ongoing ocean heat content increases, with traders weighing these factors against historical analogs for monthly anomalies around 1.4°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent record ocean warmth and the rapid intensification of a strong El Niño event represent the main drivers behind trader positioning near 1.38–1.45°C for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. Sea surface temperatures reached a new daily high of 21.1°C in late August, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C amid forecasts of a potentially historic event peaking later in the year. This adds to the background warming trend, though model spread and timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce meaningful uncertainty for the precise August value. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus highlights ongoing ocean heat content increases, with traders weighing these factors against historical analogs for monthly anomalies around 1.4°C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$3,331End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent record ocean warmth and the rapid intensification of a strong El Niño event represent the main drivers behind trader positioning near 1.38–1.45°C for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly. Sea surface temperatures reached a new daily high of 21.1°C in late August, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C amid forecasts of a potentially historic event peaking later in the year. This adds to the background warming trend, though model spread and timing of peak El Niño impacts introduce meaningful uncertainty for the precise August value. Official monitoring from NOAA and Copernicus highlights ongoing ocean heat content increases, with traders weighing these factors against historical analogs for monthly anomalies around 1.4°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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