Recent July inflation data from INDEC, showing a 2.1% month-over-month rise after three prior declines, anchors trader expectations for August as the market prices in continued disinflation under President Milei's fiscal austerity and exchange-rate stability. With year-end 2026 forecasts from analysts holding near 29-30% and core measures easing amid lower volatility, the 50% implied probability on 1.8-2.0% reflects consensus that momentum will hold near recent prints rather than reaccelerate. The 30.4% weighting on 1.5-1.7% captures potential for further moderation if seasonal and regulated price pressures remain contained, while lower probabilities on higher buckets acknowledge barriers from lingering inertia in the 33.8% year-over-year rate. The next INDEC release and central bank survey updates represent key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
1.8-2.0% 50.0%
1.5-1.7% 30.4%
2.1-2.3% 22.5%
1.2-1.4% <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
≤1.1%
1%
1.2-1.4%
1%
1.5-1.7%
30%
1.8-2.0%
50%
2.1-2.3%
13%
2.4-2.6%
1%
2.7-2.9%
1%
3.0%+
1%
1.8-2.0% 50.0%
1.5-1.7% 30.4%
2.1-2.3% 22.5%
1.2-1.4% <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
≤1.1%
$282 Vol.
1%
1.2-1.4%
$275 Vol.
1%
1.5-1.7%
$2,370 Vol.
30%
1.8-2.0%
$2,904 Vol.
50%
2.1-2.3%
$687 Vol.
13%
2.4-2.6%
$275 Vol.
1%
2.7-2.9%
$275 Vol.
1%
3.0%+
$275 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July inflation data from INDEC, showing a 2.1% month-over-month rise after three prior declines, anchors trader expectations for August as the market prices in continued disinflation under President Milei's fiscal austerity and exchange-rate stability. With year-end 2026 forecasts from analysts holding near 29-30% and core measures easing amid lower volatility, the 50% implied probability on 1.8-2.0% reflects consensus that momentum will hold near recent prints rather than reaccelerate. The 30.4% weighting on 1.5-1.7% captures potential for further moderation if seasonal and regulated price pressures remain contained, while lower probabilities on higher buckets acknowledge barriers from lingering inertia in the 33.8% year-over-year rate. The next INDEC release and central bank survey updates represent key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,342End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent July inflation data from INDEC, showing a 2.1% month-over-month rise after three prior declines, anchors trader expectations for August as the market prices in continued disinflation under President Milei's fiscal austerity and exchange-rate stability. With year-end 2026 forecasts from analysts holding near 29-30% and core measures easing amid lower volatility, the 50% implied probability on 1.8-2.0% reflects consensus that momentum will hold near recent prints rather than reaccelerate. The 30.4% weighting on 1.5-1.7% captures potential for further moderation if seasonal and regulated price pressures remain contained, while lower probabilities on higher buckets acknowledge barriers from lingering inertia in the 33.8% year-over-year rate. The next INDEC release and central bank survey updates represent key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report.
The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026.
Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$7,342End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July inflation data from INDEC, showing a 2.1% month-over-month rise after three prior declines, anchors trader expectations for August as the market prices in continued disinflation under President Milei's fiscal austerity and exchange-rate stability. With year-end 2026 forecasts from analysts holding near 29-30% and core measures easing amid lower volatility, the 50% implied probability on 1.8-2.0% reflects consensus that momentum will hold near recent prints rather than reaccelerate. The 30.4% weighting on 1.5-1.7% captures potential for further moderation if seasonal and regulated price pressures remain contained, while lower probabilities on higher buckets acknowledge barriers from lingering inertia in the 33.8% year-over-year rate. The next INDEC release and central bank survey updates represent key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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