Ongoing global warming, amplified by recent extreme heat waves, has driven overwhelming trader consensus that August 1–3, 2026, represent the hottest days on record, with implied probabilities exceeding 98% for first place. Official monitoring from NOAA, Copernicus, and regional agencies shows these dates coincided with record-breaking surface temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere, including 50°C+ readings in the UAE, multiple European national highs, and widespread U.S. heat indices, building on 2023–2026 as the warmest years in the instrumental record. Strong model consensus and observational data from early August confirm the anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines. Revised datasets or narrower geographic definitions could theoretically shift rankings, though such adjustments remain improbable given the scale of verified extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
2%
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$753 Vol.
97%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$431 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$405 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming, amplified by recent extreme heat waves, has driven overwhelming trader consensus that August 1–3, 2026, represent the hottest days on record, with implied probabilities exceeding 98% for first place. Official monitoring from NOAA, Copernicus, and regional agencies shows these dates coincided with record-breaking surface temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere, including 50°C+ readings in the UAE, multiple European national highs, and widespread U.S. heat indices, building on 2023–2026 as the warmest years in the instrumental record. Strong model consensus and observational data from early August confirm the anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines. Revised datasets or narrower geographic definitions could theoretically shift rankings, though such adjustments remain improbable given the scale of verified extremes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global warming, amplified by recent extreme heat waves, has driven overwhelming trader consensus that August 1–3, 2026, represent the hottest days on record, with implied probabilities exceeding 98% for first place. Official monitoring from NOAA, Copernicus, and regional agencies shows these dates coincided with record-breaking surface temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere, including 50°C+ readings in the UAE, multiple European national highs, and widespread U.S. heat indices, building on 2023–2026 as the warmest years in the instrumental record. Strong model consensus and observational data from early August confirm the anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines. Revised datasets or narrower geographic definitions could theoretically shift rankings, though such adjustments remain improbable given the scale of verified extremes.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing global warming, amplified by recent extreme heat waves, has driven overwhelming trader consensus that August 1–3, 2026, represent the hottest days on record, with implied probabilities exceeding 98% for first place. Official monitoring from NOAA, Copernicus, and regional agencies shows these dates coincided with record-breaking surface temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere, including 50°C+ readings in the UAE, multiple European national highs, and widespread U.S. heat indices, building on 2023–2026 as the warmest years in the instrumental record. Strong model consensus and observational data from early August confirm the anomaly relative to pre-industrial baselines. Revised datasets or narrower geographic definitions could theoretically shift rankings, though such adjustments remain improbable given the scale of verified extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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