Recent Copernicus and ERA5 data show global mean temperatures rising steadily through early August 2026 amid record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming. These conditions produced daily anomalies exceeding prior peaks, positioning August 1–3 as the clearest record holders according to model consensus and observational records. The market-implied 97.5% probability for the top ranking reflects this robust signal, with only narrow uncertainty from final dataset revisions or minor model spread. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward adjustments in verified measurements exceeding 0.05 °C or discovery of overlooked earlier extremes, outcomes considered improbable given the margin and ongoing marine heatwave coverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
97%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
<1%
4th or lower
3%
1st hottest 97.4%
4th or lower 2.5%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
1st hottest
$753 Vol.
97%
2nd hottest
$563 Vol.
1%
3rd hottest
$431 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$405 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus and ERA5 data show global mean temperatures rising steadily through early August 2026 amid record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming. These conditions produced daily anomalies exceeding prior peaks, positioning August 1–3 as the clearest record holders according to model consensus and observational records. The market-implied 97.5% probability for the top ranking reflects this robust signal, with only narrow uncertainty from final dataset revisions or minor model spread. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward adjustments in verified measurements exceeding 0.05 °C or discovery of overlooked earlier extremes, outcomes considered improbable given the margin and ongoing marine heatwave coverage.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent Copernicus and ERA5 data show global mean temperatures rising steadily through early August 2026 amid record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming. These conditions produced daily anomalies exceeding prior peaks, positioning August 1–3 as the clearest record holders according to model consensus and observational records. The market-implied 97.5% probability for the top ranking reflects this robust signal, with only narrow uncertainty from final dataset revisions or minor model spread. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward adjustments in verified measurements exceeding 0.05 °C or discovery of overlooked earlier extremes, outcomes considered improbable given the margin and ongoing marine heatwave coverage.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,152End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Copernicus and ERA5 data show global mean temperatures rising steadily through early August 2026 amid record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event superimposed on decades of anthropogenic warming. These conditions produced daily anomalies exceeding prior peaks, positioning August 1–3 as the clearest record holders according to model consensus and observational records. The market-implied 97.5% probability for the top ranking reflects this robust signal, with only narrow uncertainty from final dataset revisions or minor model spread. A realistic challenge would require substantial downward adjustments in verified measurements exceeding 0.05 °C or discovery of overlooked earlier extremes, outcomes considered improbable given the margin and ongoing marine heatwave coverage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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