Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?
¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?
Sí
9% probabilidad
$419,701 Vol.
$419,701 Vol.
30 jun 2027
Sí
9% probabilidad
$419,701 Vol.
$419,701 Vol.
30 jun 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volumen
$419,701Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$419,701Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. U.S. intelligence assessments released in March 2026 concluded that Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline for unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027. Ongoing PLA activities, including ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols near Kinmen and Pratas, and periodic live-fire drills, remain consistent with gray-zone pressure rather than imminent conflict. Taiwan's August 2026 Han Kuang exercises tested reservist mobilization and supply resilience amid these tensions, while Beijing continues diplomatic signaling and coercive measures short of war. High expected costs from potential U.S. and allied intervention further support the current market positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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