China conducts long-range ballistic missile tests, including intercontinental and submarine-launched variants, on an infrequent schedule, with only a handful of publicly acknowledged events spanning decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific represented a notable recent demonstration of sea-based capabilities, described by Beijing as routine training. No major diplomatic crises, escalation signals, or announced follow-on exercises have emerged since that event to suggest additional public launches are imminent before year-end. Trader consensus favoring no further qualifying launches by December 31 aligns with this established pattern of spaced-out strategic signaling rather than frequent activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
¿Lanzamiento de misiles balísticos de China antes del 31 de diciembre?
Sí
19% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
Sí
19% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducts long-range ballistic missile tests, including intercontinental and submarine-launched variants, on an infrequent schedule, with only a handful of publicly acknowledged events spanning decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific represented a notable recent demonstration of sea-based capabilities, described by Beijing as routine training. No major diplomatic crises, escalation signals, or announced follow-on exercises have emerged since that event to suggest additional public launches are imminent before year-end. Trader consensus favoring no further qualifying launches by December 31 aligns with this established pattern of spaced-out strategic signaling rather than frequent activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado abierto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volumen
$9,496Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China conducts long-range ballistic missile tests, including intercontinental and submarine-launched variants, on an infrequent schedule, with only a handful of publicly acknowledged events spanning decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific represented a notable recent demonstration of sea-based capabilities, described by Beijing as routine training. No major diplomatic crises, escalation signals, or announced follow-on exercises have emerged since that event to suggest additional public launches are imminent before year-end. Trader consensus favoring no further qualifying launches by December 31 aligns with this established pattern of spaced-out strategic signaling rather than frequent activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volumen
$9,496Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China conducts long-range ballistic missile tests, including intercontinental and submarine-launched variants, on an infrequent schedule, with only a handful of publicly acknowledged events spanning decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the South Pacific represented a notable recent demonstration of sea-based capabilities, described by Beijing as routine training. No major diplomatic crises, escalation signals, or announced follow-on exercises have emerged since that event to suggest additional public launches are imminent before year-end. Trader consensus favoring no further qualifying launches by December 31 aligns with this established pattern of spaced-out strategic signaling rather than frequent activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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