Recent polling shows 60-72% of Albertans favor remaining in Canada over advancing to a binding separation referendum, with separatist support declining from 28% in January to around 19-24% by mid-2026. Premier Danielle Smith's government scheduled an October 19, 2026, provincial referendum on whether to begin constitutional steps toward independence following citizen petitions that gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Legal challenges have delayed aspects of the process, including court rulings requiring further consultation, while the United Conservative Party and opposition New Democrats both signal preference for staying within Confederation. These factors underpin trader consensus that Alberta will not hold or approve an independence vote this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$254,303 Vol.
$254,303 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$254,303 Vol.
$254,303 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling shows 60-72% of Albertans favor remaining in Canada over advancing to a binding separation referendum, with separatist support declining from 28% in January to around 19-24% by mid-2026. Premier Danielle Smith's government scheduled an October 19, 2026, provincial referendum on whether to begin constitutional steps toward independence following citizen petitions that gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Legal challenges have delayed aspects of the process, including court rulings requiring further consultation, while the United Conservative Party and opposition New Democrats both signal preference for staying within Confederation. These factors underpin trader consensus that Alberta will not hold or approve an independence vote this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$254,303Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent polling shows 60-72% of Albertans favor remaining in Canada over advancing to a binding separation referendum, with separatist support declining from 28% in January to around 19-24% by mid-2026. Premier Danielle Smith's government scheduled an October 19, 2026, provincial referendum on whether to begin constitutional steps toward independence following citizen petitions that gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Legal challenges have delayed aspects of the process, including court rulings requiring further consultation, while the United Conservative Party and opposition New Democrats both signal preference for staying within Confederation. These factors underpin trader consensus that Alberta will not hold or approve an independence vote this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$254,303Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows 60-72% of Albertans favor remaining in Canada over advancing to a binding separation referendum, with separatist support declining from 28% in January to around 19-24% by mid-2026. Premier Danielle Smith's government scheduled an October 19, 2026, provincial referendum on whether to begin constitutional steps toward independence following citizen petitions that gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Legal challenges have delayed aspects of the process, including court rulings requiring further consultation, while the United Conservative Party and opposition New Democrats both signal preference for staying within Confederation. These factors underpin trader consensus that Alberta will not hold or approve an independence vote this year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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