Traders assign a 99.6% probability against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by August 31, 2026, reflecting Russia's consistent position that direct leader-level talks require prior expert-level agreements on core issues such as territorial control and security guarantees. Recent developments reinforce this stance: Zelenskyy's June 2026 open letter proposing a third-country summit was explicitly rebuffed by Putin as pointless without preconditions, while U.S.-facilitated trilateral discussions have remained stalled amid disagreements over Iran-related matters and Russia's rejection of any freeze in hostilities. With only days remaining before the deadline and no bilateral summit scheduled, the near-certain trader consensus aligns with the absence of verifiable diplomatic momentum. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt U.S.-brokered announcement or a sudden escalation prompting emergency talks, though both appear improbable given the entrenched procedural barriers and short timeframe.