Ukraine's ongoing refusal to accept permanent neutrality remains the central driver behind traders' 98.8% assessment that Kyiv will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by August 31. NATO allies continue to describe Ukraine's integration path as irreversible, while recent diplomatic exchanges, including the July 2026 Ankara summit and stalled bilateral contacts, show no shift in Ukraine's position or new concessions on alliance accession. Russia reiterates demands for neutrality drawn from prior Istanbul and Anchorage discussions, yet Ukrainian leadership has rejected these terms amid active fighting and Western security coordination. With the deadline two weeks away and no scheduled events capable of forcing an immediate reversal, market pricing reflects the entrenched impasse. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or explicit Ukrainian statements tied to a ceasefire framework represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
1% probabilidad
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sí
1% probabilidad
$25,410 Vol.
$25,410 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's ongoing refusal to accept permanent neutrality remains the central driver behind traders' 98.8% assessment that Kyiv will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by August 31. NATO allies continue to describe Ukraine's integration path as irreversible, while recent diplomatic exchanges, including the July 2026 Ankara summit and stalled bilateral contacts, show no shift in Ukraine's position or new concessions on alliance accession. Russia reiterates demands for neutrality drawn from prior Istanbul and Anchorage discussions, yet Ukrainian leadership has rejected these terms amid active fighting and Western security coordination. With the deadline two weeks away and no scheduled events capable of forcing an immediate reversal, market pricing reflects the entrenched impasse. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or explicit Ukrainian statements tied to a ceasefire framework represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado abierto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volumen
$25,410Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine's ongoing refusal to accept permanent neutrality remains the central driver behind traders' 98.8% assessment that Kyiv will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by August 31. NATO allies continue to describe Ukraine's integration path as irreversible, while recent diplomatic exchanges, including the July 2026 Ankara summit and stalled bilateral contacts, show no shift in Ukraine's position or new concessions on alliance accession. Russia reiterates demands for neutrality drawn from prior Istanbul and Anchorage discussions, yet Ukrainian leadership has rejected these terms amid active fighting and Western security coordination. With the deadline two weeks away and no scheduled events capable of forcing an immediate reversal, market pricing reflects the entrenched impasse. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or explicit Ukrainian statements tied to a ceasefire framework represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volumen
$25,410Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's ongoing refusal to accept permanent neutrality remains the central driver behind traders' 98.8% assessment that Kyiv will not publicly agree to forgo NATO membership by August 31. NATO allies continue to describe Ukraine's integration path as irreversible, while recent diplomatic exchanges, including the July 2026 Ankara summit and stalled bilateral contacts, show no shift in Ukraine's position or new concessions on alliance accession. Russia reiterates demands for neutrality drawn from prior Istanbul and Anchorage discussions, yet Ukrainian leadership has rejected these terms amid active fighting and Western security coordination. With the deadline two weeks away and no scheduled events capable of forcing an immediate reversal, market pricing reflects the entrenched impasse. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or explicit Ukrainian statements tied to a ceasefire framework represent the narrow pathways that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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