**NATO allies have not faced a qualifying armed attack on member territory since the sole historical invocation of Article 5 after 9/11, and no such event appears imminent before 2027.** The short remaining window, combined with the requirement for unanimous North Atlantic Council consensus among 32 members, keeps the implied probability of invocation very low. Ongoing Russian hybrid activities—including airspace violations, suspected sabotage, and rhetorical threats such as those directed at Lithuania—have stayed below the threshold for collective defense, with responses limited to national or limited allied measures. The July 2026 Ankara summit produced a declaration reaffirming the “ironclad” commitment to Article 5 and transatlantic defense, yet it also highlighted divisions over U.S. burden-sharing and out-of-area priorities. Potential flashpoints, such as Russian probes against eastern-flank states or tensions involving Turkish forces abroad, have not produced the unambiguous territorial attack needed to trigger the clause, and analysts note that even serious cyberattacks or hybrid operations would require clear attribution and allied agreement. With only months left and no verified preparations for a direct conventional strike materializing, traders assess the near-term risk as minimal.