Persistent low water levels on the Rhine, driven by dry summer conditions and limited recent precipitation in the Alpine catchment, keep key gauges such as Kaub and Maxau well below navigation thresholds as of early September 2026. Official updates from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology indicate that August rains offered only temporary relief, with levels now declining again and no substantial recovery expected before mid-September under prevailing forecasts. This hydrological outlook supports the close trader consensus between a late-September rebound and an October return, as seasonal autumn patterns and variable rainfall could shift timing either way. Further dry weather would favor the later window, while timely precipitation might accelerate normalization.