**In the Saint-François riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, National Assembly election, trader odds remain closely balanced among the main contenders because the seat features a fragmented field in a redistributed district where provincial trends and local dynamics overlap.** Incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec faces Parti Québécois candidate Sylvie Tanguay, Québec solidaire’s Mia Fréchette, and Liberal Jacqueline Belleau, with projections from sources such as 338Canada showing the PQ ahead on popular vote estimates around 29–37 percent while the CAQ sits near 20–22 percent. The race stays tight due to split opposition votes, CAQ incumbency advantages in a historically competitive Estrie riding, and broader provincial polling volatility on issues including health care access, affordability, and temporary foreign worker policies relevant to the Coaticook area. Upcoming events such as the September 17 nomination deadline, party leader visits, and final-week polling could shift implied probabilities by clarifying turnout patterns or clarifying each party’s local strength.