Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature near 27°C for Shanghai on August 24, reflecting the primary driver of trader sentiment behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent southeasterly flow and high dew points near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated showers maintain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer subtropical conditions, where radiative cooling is limited. Recent observations show minima holding in the 26–28°C range amid above-normal humidity and weak pressure gradients, consistent with climatological August baselines around 25–27°C. Minor model spread on exact cloud cover and wind timing introduces modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 20.5% probability at 28°C, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns. Updated regional guidance ahead of resolution will refine these aggregates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 24 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shanghái el 24 de agosto?
27°C 66%
28°C 26%
26°C 10%
25°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
10%
27°C
66%
28°C
22%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 66%
28°C 26%
26°C 10%
25°C 7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 ago 2026
22°C or below
$125 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$211 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$198 Vol.
1%
25°C
$467 Vol.
7%
26°C
$904 Vol.
10%
27°C
$938 Vol.
66%
28°C
$828 Vol.
22%
29°C
$592 Vol.
1%
30°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature near 27°C for Shanghai on August 24, reflecting the primary driver of trader sentiment behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent southeasterly flow and high dew points near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated showers maintain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer subtropical conditions, where radiative cooling is limited. Recent observations show minima holding in the 26–28°C range amid above-normal humidity and weak pressure gradients, consistent with climatological August baselines around 25–27°C. Minor model spread on exact cloud cover and wind timing introduces modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 20.5% probability at 28°C, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns. Updated regional guidance ahead of resolution will refine these aggregates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$4,790Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature near 27°C for Shanghai on August 24, reflecting the primary driver of trader sentiment behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent southeasterly flow and high dew points near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated showers maintain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer subtropical conditions, where radiative cooling is limited. Recent observations show minima holding in the 26–28°C range amid above-normal humidity and weak pressure gradients, consistent with climatological August baselines around 25–27°C. Minor model spread on exact cloud cover and wind timing introduces modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 20.5% probability at 28°C, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns. Updated regional guidance ahead of resolution will refine these aggregates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$4,790Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models converge on a minimum temperature near 27°C for Shanghai on August 24, reflecting the primary driver of trader sentiment behind the 64.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Persistent southeasterly flow and high dew points near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with isolated showers maintain elevated overnight lows typical of late-summer subtropical conditions, where radiative cooling is limited. Recent observations show minima holding in the 26–28°C range amid above-normal humidity and weak pressure gradients, consistent with climatological August baselines around 25–27°C. Minor model spread on exact cloud cover and wind timing introduces modest uncertainty that supports the secondary 20.5% probability at 28°C, while colder or warmer extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns. Updated regional guidance ahead of resolution will refine these aggregates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes