Current forecast models and Hong Kong Observatory guidance point to an overnight minimum near 27°C on August 26, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity (75–95%) that limit nighttime radiative cooling under the influence of a broad low-pressure trough. Typical late-August conditions feature a narrow diurnal range of 4–6°C, with climatological averages around 26.7°C; recent model runs and observations from the prior week show consistent overnight readings in the 26–28°C band amid frequent showers. Trader consensus, reflected in the leading 27°C outcome at 43.5% implied probability, aligns with this stable pattern, though minor shifts in steering flow or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum toward 26°C or 28°C before resolution.