Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with centrifuges destroyed and uranium enrichment halted at declared sites. Approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains unverified and largely buried under rubble, while IAEA inspectors lack access to confirm the stockpile's status or location amid Iran's safeguards non-compliance. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced a status quo pending further talks, and satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction efforts at underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, though these appear focused on long-term recovery rather than immediate weaponization. This combination of physical setbacks, verification gaps, and diplomatic constraints underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could occur if Iran successfully moves material to hardened clandestine facilities, accelerates rebuilding undetected, or faces a breakdown in negotiations prompting a rapid breakout attempt.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$249,002 Vol.
$249,002 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with centrifuges destroyed and uranium enrichment halted at declared sites. Approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains unverified and largely buried under rubble, while IAEA inspectors lack access to confirm the stockpile's status or location amid Iran's safeguards non-compliance. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced a status quo pending further talks, and satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction efforts at underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, though these appear focused on long-term recovery rather than immediate weaponization. This combination of physical setbacks, verification gaps, and diplomatic constraints underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could occur if Iran successfully moves material to hardened clandestine facilities, accelerates rebuilding undetected, or faces a breakdown in negotiations prompting a rapid breakout attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$249,002Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with centrifuges destroyed and uranium enrichment halted at declared sites. Approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains unverified and largely buried under rubble, while IAEA inspectors lack access to confirm the stockpile's status or location amid Iran's safeguards non-compliance. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced a status quo pending further talks, and satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction efforts at underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, though these appear focused on long-term recovery rather than immediate weaponization. This combination of physical setbacks, verification gaps, and diplomatic constraints underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could occur if Iran successfully moves material to hardened clandestine facilities, accelerates rebuilding undetected, or faces a breakdown in negotiations prompting a rapid breakout attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$249,002Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with centrifuges destroyed and uranium enrichment halted at declared sites. Approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains unverified and largely buried under rubble, while IAEA inspectors lack access to confirm the stockpile's status or location amid Iran's safeguards non-compliance. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reinforced a status quo pending further talks, and satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction efforts at underground sites such as Pickaxe Mountain, though these appear focused on long-term recovery rather than immediate weaponization. This combination of physical setbacks, verification gaps, and diplomatic constraints underpins trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. Shifts could occur if Iran successfully moves material to hardened clandestine facilities, accelerates rebuilding undetected, or faces a breakdown in negotiations prompting a rapid breakout attempt.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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