Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with inflation readings remaining above the 2% target (July headline CPI near 3.4% and core measures elevated by energy costs), have driven market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts and a potential September hike. This policy repricing, alongside heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, has pushed the 10-year yield to 4.77–4.78% as of September 4, 2026—up roughly 0.7 percentage points over the prior month and near multi-year highs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals that could ease or reinforce pressure on longer-term yields through shifts in real rates and term premia.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
30 sep 2026
Por debajo de 4.76%
60%
Por debajo de 4.73%
61%
Por debajo del 4,70%
50%
Por debajo de 4.67%
49%
Por debajo de 4,64%
49%
Por debajo de 4.61%
50%
Por debajo de 4,56%
47%
Por debajo de 4,51%
39%
Por debajo de 4,45%
36%
$0.00 Vol.
Por debajo de 4.76%
$0 Vol.
60%
Por debajo de 4.73%
$0 Vol.
61%
Por debajo del 4,70%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo de 4.67%
$0 Vol.
49%
Por debajo de 4,64%
$0 Vol.
49%
Por debajo de 4.61%
$0 Vol.
50%
Por debajo de 4,56%
$0 Vol.
47%
Por debajo de 4,51%
$0 Vol.
39%
Por debajo de 4,45%
$0 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with inflation readings remaining above the 2% target (July headline CPI near 3.4% and core measures elevated by energy costs), have driven market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts and a potential September hike. This policy repricing, alongside heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, has pushed the 10-year yield to 4.77–4.78% as of September 4, 2026—up roughly 0.7 percentage points over the prior month and near multi-year highs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals that could ease or reinforce pressure on longer-term yields through shifts in real rates and term premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with inflation readings remaining above the 2% target (July headline CPI near 3.4% and core measures elevated by energy costs), have driven market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts and a potential September hike. This policy repricing, alongside heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, has pushed the 10-year yield to 4.77–4.78% as of September 4, 2026—up roughly 0.7 percentage points over the prior month and near multi-year highs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals that could ease or reinforce pressure on longer-term yields through shifts in real rates and term premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with inflation readings remaining above the 2% target (July headline CPI near 3.4% and core measures elevated by energy costs), have driven market-implied odds toward fewer or no rate cuts and a potential September hike. This policy repricing, alongside heavy Treasury issuance amid fiscal deficits near 5.8% of GDP, has pushed the 10-year yield to 4.77–4.78% as of September 4, 2026—up roughly 0.7 percentage points over the prior month and near multi-year highs. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI and PPI releases plus the next FOMC meeting for signals that could ease or reinforce pressure on longer-term yields through shifts in real rates and term premia.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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