Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausa–pausa–pausa 28%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 12%
Pausa–Subida–Subida 12%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
11%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
19%
Subida–Subida–Subida
5%
Subida–subida–pausa
6%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
12%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
28%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
12%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
10%
Otro
5%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 28%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 12%
Pausa–Subida–Subida 12%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
$314 Vol.
11%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
$296 Vol.
19%
Subida–Subida–Subida
$216 Vol.
5%
Subida–subida–pausa
$237 Vol.
6%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
$253 Vol.
12%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$8,928 Vol.
28%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
$237 Vol.
12%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
$214 Vol.
10%
Otro
$203 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$10,897Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$10,897Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes