The Democratic Party's commanding position in the CA-49 House election stems primarily from the district's pronounced leftward shift under California's Prop. 50 redistricting, which moved the seat approximately four points Democratic and aligned it with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate. Incumbent Representative Mike Levin, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024, advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican Armen Kurdian. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan voting index and consistent voter registration advantages. While a late national Republican surge or unforeseen local development could narrow the margin, the structural and incumbency factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-49 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-49 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$20,224 Vol.
$20,224 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$20,224 Vol.
$20,224 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$18,997 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$1,227 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding position in the CA-49 House election stems primarily from the district's pronounced leftward shift under California's Prop. 50 redistricting, which moved the seat approximately four points Democratic and aligned it with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate. Incumbent Representative Mike Levin, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024, advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican Armen Kurdian. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan voting index and consistent voter registration advantages. While a late national Republican surge or unforeseen local development could narrow the margin, the structural and incumbency factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$20,224Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party's commanding position in the CA-49 House election stems primarily from the district's pronounced leftward shift under California's Prop. 50 redistricting, which moved the seat approximately four points Democratic and aligned it with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate. Incumbent Representative Mike Levin, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024, advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican Armen Kurdian. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan voting index and consistent voter registration advantages. While a late national Republican surge or unforeseen local development could narrow the margin, the structural and incumbency factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-49 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$20,224Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party's commanding position in the CA-49 House election stems primarily from the district's pronounced leftward shift under California's Prop. 50 redistricting, which moved the seat approximately four points Democratic and aligned it with a double-digit margin for the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate. Incumbent Representative Mike Levin, first elected in 2018 and re-elected narrowly in 2024, advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary with 55.9% of the vote against Republican Armen Kurdian. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the district's D+7 partisan voting index and consistent voter registration advantages. While a late national Republican surge or unforeseen local development could narrow the margin, the structural and incumbency factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94% implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes