Redistricting under recent California ballot measures has transformed the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with the partisan voting index and recent presidential results showing a clear advantage for the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical turnout patterns in the Sacramento region. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the structural edge and limited competitive history in similar California districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could narrow the margin, though such factors have rarely overcome double-digit partisan leans in comparable races.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$34,203 Vol.
$34,203 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$34,203 Vol.
$34,203 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$19,591 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$14,612 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California ballot measures has transformed the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with the partisan voting index and recent presidential results showing a clear advantage for the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical turnout patterns in the Sacramento region. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the structural edge and limited competitive history in similar California districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could narrow the margin, though such factors have rarely overcome double-digit partisan leans in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$34,203Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under recent California ballot measures has transformed the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with the partisan voting index and recent presidential results showing a clear advantage for the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical turnout patterns in the Sacramento region. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the structural edge and limited competitive history in similar California districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could narrow the margin, though such factors have rarely overcome double-digit partisan leans in comparable races.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$34,203Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under recent California ballot measures has transformed the 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with the partisan voting index and recent presidential results showing a clear advantage for the party. Incumbent Representative Ami Bera secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary and faces Republican Robb Tucker in the November general election. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting the district's voter composition and historical turnout patterns in the Sacramento region. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the Democratic Party a commanding 93.5% implied probability, consistent with the structural edge and limited competitive history in similar California districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national political shift could narrow the margin, though such factors have rarely overcome double-digit partisan leans in comparable races.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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