Renan Santos, the Mission Party nominee and co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement, maintains single-digit support in first-round polling amid a crowded field that includes frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent TSE validation of his candidacy on September 10 resolved prior social-media disclosure issues that briefly restricted digital outreach and funds, allowing resumption of online efforts where he performs strongly among younger voters. His pragmatic right-wing platform, emphasis on institutional reform, and explicit distancing from both PT and Bolsonarism have consolidated a niche but limited base, while broader name recognition remains modest and competition from other conservative contenders fragments potential support. Traders' emphasis on the 4-6% band reflects these structural constraints ahead of the October vote, with upside scenarios tied to further youth mobilization or late consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4-6% 33%
8%+ 28%
6-8% 26%
<2% 23%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<2%
23%
2-4%
18%
4-6%
33%
6-8%
26%
8%+
28%
4-6% 33%
8%+ 28%
6-8% 26%
<2% 23%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<2%
$37 Vol.
23%
2-4%
$341 Vol.
18%
4-6%
$100 Vol.
33%
6-8%
$37 Vol.
26%
8%+
$82 Vol.
28%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Renan Santos, the Mission Party nominee and co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement, maintains single-digit support in first-round polling amid a crowded field that includes frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent TSE validation of his candidacy on September 10 resolved prior social-media disclosure issues that briefly restricted digital outreach and funds, allowing resumption of online efforts where he performs strongly among younger voters. His pragmatic right-wing platform, emphasis on institutional reform, and explicit distancing from both PT and Bolsonarism have consolidated a niche but limited base, while broader name recognition remains modest and competition from other conservative contenders fragments potential support. Traders' emphasis on the 4-6% band reflects these structural constraints ahead of the October vote, with upside scenarios tied to further youth mobilization or late consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volumen
$597Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Renan Santos, the Mission Party nominee and co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement, maintains single-digit support in first-round polling amid a crowded field that includes frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent TSE validation of his candidacy on September 10 resolved prior social-media disclosure issues that briefly restricted digital outreach and funds, allowing resumption of online efforts where he performs strongly among younger voters. His pragmatic right-wing platform, emphasis on institutional reform, and explicit distancing from both PT and Bolsonarism have consolidated a niche but limited base, while broader name recognition remains modest and competition from other conservative contenders fragments potential support. Traders' emphasis on the 4-6% band reflects these structural constraints ahead of the October vote, with upside scenarios tied to further youth mobilization or late consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$597Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Renan Santos, the Mission Party nominee and co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement, maintains single-digit support in first-round polling amid a crowded field that includes frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. Recent TSE validation of his candidacy on September 10 resolved prior social-media disclosure issues that briefly restricted digital outreach and funds, allowing resumption of online efforts where he performs strongly among younger voters. His pragmatic right-wing platform, emphasis on institutional reform, and explicit distancing from both PT and Bolsonarism have consolidated a niche but limited base, while broader name recognition remains modest and competition from other conservative contenders fragments potential support. Traders' emphasis on the 4-6% band reflects these structural constraints ahead of the October vote, with upside scenarios tied to further youth mobilization or late consolidation of anti-establishment sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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