Recent September 2026 polls place Lula's first-round intentions mostly between 36% and 42%, with aggregators centering near 38-39% amid a fragmented right-wing field led by Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets, reflecting adjustments for undecided voters, turnout patterns, and the impact of free electoral broadcasts that began in August. Lula benefits from incumbency and left-leaning consolidation, while opposition fragmentation and mixed government approval ratings—hovering near parity in recent surveys—limit upside. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for major shifts before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado44%+ 44%
41-44% 33%
38-41% 22%
35-38% 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<35%
13%
35-38%
5%
38-41%
22%
41-44%
33%
44%+
44%
44%+ 44%
41-44% 33%
38-41% 22%
35-38% 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<35%
$258 Vol.
13%
35-38%
$259 Vol.
5%
38-41%
$282 Vol.
22%
41-44%
$718 Vol.
33%
44%+
$811 Vol.
44%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polls place Lula's first-round intentions mostly between 36% and 42%, with aggregators centering near 38-39% amid a fragmented right-wing field led by Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets, reflecting adjustments for undecided voters, turnout patterns, and the impact of free electoral broadcasts that began in August. Lula benefits from incumbency and left-leaning consolidation, while opposition fragmentation and mixed government approval ratings—hovering near parity in recent surveys—limit upside. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for major shifts before market resolution.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volumen
$2,328Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent September 2026 polls place Lula's first-round intentions mostly between 36% and 42%, with aggregators centering near 38-39% amid a fragmented right-wing field led by Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets, reflecting adjustments for undecided voters, turnout patterns, and the impact of free electoral broadcasts that began in August. Lula benefits from incumbency and left-leaning consolidation, while opposition fragmentation and mixed government approval ratings—hovering near parity in recent surveys—limit upside. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for major shifts before market resolution.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$2,328Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent September 2026 polls place Lula's first-round intentions mostly between 36% and 42%, with aggregators centering near 38-39% amid a fragmented right-wing field led by Flávio Bolsonaro. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 41-44% and 44%+ buckets, reflecting adjustments for undecided voters, turnout patterns, and the impact of free electoral broadcasts that began in August. Lula benefits from incumbency and left-leaning consolidation, while opposition fragmentation and mixed government approval ratings—hovering near parity in recent surveys—limit upside. The October 4 first-round date leaves limited time for major shifts before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá Flávio Bolsonaro el 39% o más de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
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¿Renan Santos obtendrá entre el 4% y el 6% de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
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¿Ganará Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026 por menos del 5%?
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Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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