Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling aggregates and trader assessments. Lula (PT) maintains a narrow lead in first-round simulations at 36-42%, while Flávio trails at 30-37% but consistently ranks ahead of alternatives such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Recent Quaest, Nexus, and Datafolha surveys show the gap between the top two narrowing amid right-wing consolidation behind the Liberal Party candidate. An ongoing institutional standoff at the Supreme Court over the Fake News Inquiry has added volatility, though it has not shifted first-round hierarchies. Other contenders remain below 8% in most national samples, limiting their ability to displace Flávio for second. The October 25 runoff, if needed, would follow the initial ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21.8%
Renan Santos 1.1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,173,908 Vol.
$7,173,908 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
22%
Renan Santos
1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 21.8%
Renan Santos 1.1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,173,908 Vol.
$7,173,908 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
22%
Renan Santos
1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holds a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, according to recent polling aggregates and trader assessments. Lula (PT) maintains a narrow lead in first-round simulations at 36-42%, while Flávio trails at 30-37% but consistently ranks ahead of alternatives such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). Recent Quaest, Nexus, and Datafolha surveys show the gap between the top two narrowing amid right-wing consolidation behind the Liberal Party candidate. An ongoing institutional standoff at the Supreme Court over the Fake News Inquiry has added volatility, though it has not shifted first-round hierarchies. Other contenders remain below 8% in most national samples, limiting their ability to displace Flávio for second. The October 25 runoff, if needed, would follow the initial ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Augusto Cury terminará en tercer lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en la próxima elección presidencial de Brasil en el Distrito Federal?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes