Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$33,658 Vol.
$33,658 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$33,658 Vol.
$33,658 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$25,617 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$8,041 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$33,658Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,658Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s primary victory over challenger Kai Newkirk and the district’s D+4 Cook Partisan Voting Index have anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District. The seat, centered in Maricopa County and covering parts of Phoenix, Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler, delivered Stanton a 7-point margin in 2024, consistent with its recent voting patterns. Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser advanced unopposed in his primary, while minor-party candidates remain on the November 3 ballot. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s fundraising edge and the district’s structural lean. With the Democratic outcome priced above 90 percent, late developments such as national political shifts, candidate health issues, or unusually high turnout swings could still narrow the margin or alter the result before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes