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icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?

icon for Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?
Technik·AI

Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Jan. 1, 2027

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Jan. 1, 2027

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.8%

Google 3.0%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,324,582 Vol.

Anthropic 84%

OpenAI 13.8%

Google 3.0%

Meta <1%

Polymarket

$2,324,582 Vol.

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$505,804 Vol.

84%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$403,606 Vol.

14%

icon for Google

Google

$220,603 Vol.

3%

icon for Meta

Meta

$284,661 Vol.

1%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$204,645 Vol.

<1%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$150,567 Vol.

<1%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$70,811 Vol.

<1%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$33,925 Vol.

<1%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$100,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$33,423 Vol.

<1%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$77,310 Vol.

<1%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$19,219 Vol.

<1%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$47,425 Vol.

<1%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$18,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$14,148 Vol.

<1%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$23,406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$25,591 Vol.

<1%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$18,597 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$12,889 Vol.

<1%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$21,501 Vol.

<1%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$37,694 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases drive the 83.5% implied probability that the company fields the strongest model by end-September, as independent benchmarks show leadership on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-horizon tasks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench variants. These updates build on prior gains in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption, outpacing rivals on metrics that matter for practical deployment. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduces competitive computer-use capabilities but faces restricted access and mixed third-party results relative to Anthropic’s offerings. Trader consensus reflects this momentum while recognizing that rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility could still shift outcomes before month-end.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,324,582
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases drive the 83.5% implied probability that the company fields the strongest model by end-September, as independent benchmarks show leadership on coding, agentic reasoning, and long-horizon tasks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench variants. These updates build on prior gains in safety-aligned performance and enterprise adoption, outpacing rivals on metrics that matter for practical deployment. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 introduces competitive computer-use capabilities but faces restricted access and mixed third-party results relative to Anthropic’s offerings. Trader consensus reflects this momentum while recognizing that rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility could still shift outcomes before month-end.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$2,324,582
Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

Wird Anthropic am Ende September 2026 das führende KI-Modell haben?

80%
Ja
icon for Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?

76%
icon for Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

78%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Anthropic" mit 84%, gefolgt von „OpenAI" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 84¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $2.3 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jul 20, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 21 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?" ist „Anthropic" mit 84%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 84% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „OpenAI" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Welches Unternehmen hat Ende September das beste KI-Modell?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.