Anthropic’s repeated leadership across independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench Verified, capped by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, underpins the 63% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by year-end. The model family posts top scores in coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning tasks that traders view as decisive for “best AI model” resolution, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra despite the latter’s claims of superior cybersecurity and science performance. OpenAI’s 19.5% odds reflect ongoing competitive pressure from rapid iteration, while Google, xAI, and Meta trail on verified frontier metrics. With four months remaining, further releases or benchmark shifts could still narrow the gap, but current trader consensus prices Anthropic’s edge as durable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,310 Vol.
$1,100,310 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Anthropic
63%
OpenAI
20%
10%
xAI
3%
Meta
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 63%
OpenAI 20%
Google 10%
xAI 3.0%
$1,100,310 Vol.
$1,100,310 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Anthropic
$125,575 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$101,929 Vol.
20%
$67,685 Vol.
10%
xAI
$86,957 Vol.
3%
Meta
$69,078 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$65,048 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$68,261 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$77,977 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$79,873 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$73,284 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$51,626 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$62,689 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$59,202 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$56,925 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$54,200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s repeated leadership across independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench Verified, capped by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, underpins the 63% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by year-end. The model family posts top scores in coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning tasks that traders view as decisive for “best AI model” resolution, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra despite the latter’s claims of superior cybersecurity and science performance. OpenAI’s 19.5% odds reflect ongoing competitive pressure from rapid iteration, while Google, xAI, and Meta trail on verified frontier metrics. With four months remaining, further releases or benchmark shifts could still narrow the gap, but current trader consensus prices Anthropic’s edge as durable.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volumen
$1,100,310Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s repeated leadership across independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench Verified, capped by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, underpins the 63% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by year-end. The model family posts top scores in coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning tasks that traders view as decisive for “best AI model” resolution, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra despite the latter’s claims of superior cybersecurity and science performance. OpenAI’s 19.5% odds reflect ongoing competitive pressure from rapid iteration, while Google, xAI, and Meta trail on verified frontier metrics. With four months remaining, further releases or benchmark shifts could still narrow the gap, but current trader consensus prices Anthropic’s edge as durable.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,100,310Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s repeated leadership across independent benchmarks such as the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and SWE-bench Verified, capped by the early-September release of Claude Fable 5.1, underpins the 63% market-implied probability that it fields the strongest model by year-end. The model family posts top scores in coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning tasks that traders view as decisive for “best AI model” resolution, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra despite the latter’s claims of superior cybersecurity and science performance. OpenAI’s 19.5% odds reflect ongoing competitive pressure from rapid iteration, while Google, xAI, and Meta trail on verified frontier metrics. With four months remaining, further releases or benchmark shifts could still narrow the gap, but current trader consensus prices Anthropic’s edge as durable.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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