**Z.ai leads trader consensus at 91% implied probability for owning Ox Alpha**, the anonymous stealth reasoning model that launched free on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026. Multiple independent technical probes—exact 95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches with the GLM-5 family, matching API error codes, video-token handling patterns, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s infrastructure and prior anonymous previews like Pony Alpha. The model’s 1M-token context, multimodal inputs, tool-calling features, and strong early coding benchmarks further support the GLM lineage in trader assessments. While no lab has issued an official claim, the skin-in-the-game odds reflect this accumulating forensic evidence over alternatives. A credible attribution from another provider, conflicting benchmarks, or a surprise official announcement could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertZ.ai 91%
Google 3.7%
Safe Superintelligence 2.7%
Xiaomi 1.4%
NEU
$22,742 Vol.
NEU
$22,742 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Z.ai
91%
4%
Safe Superintelligence
3%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
Cursor
1%
Mistral
1%
Alibaba
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot KI
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai 91%
Google 3.7%
Safe Superintelligence 2.7%
Xiaomi 1.4%
NEU
$22,742 Vol.
NEU
$22,742 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Z.ai
$6,971 Vol.
91%
$1,126 Vol.
4%
Safe Superintelligence
$1,040 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$902 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$848 Vol.
1%
Meta
$366 Vol.
1%
Cursor
$912 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$915 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$860 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$714 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$827 Vol.
1%
xAI
$1,033 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot KI
$709 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$723 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$545 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$532 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$527 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$555 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$545 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$536 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$516 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$675 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$366 Vol.
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Z.ai leads trader consensus at 91% implied probability for owning Ox Alpha**, the anonymous stealth reasoning model that launched free on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026. Multiple independent technical probes—exact 95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches with the GLM-5 family, matching API error codes, video-token handling patterns, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s infrastructure and prior anonymous previews like Pony Alpha. The model’s 1M-token context, multimodal inputs, tool-calling features, and strong early coding benchmarks further support the GLM lineage in trader assessments. While no lab has issued an official claim, the skin-in-the-game odds reflect this accumulating forensic evidence over alternatives. A credible attribution from another provider, conflicting benchmarks, or a surprise official announcement could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Volumen
$22,742Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Z.ai leads trader consensus at 91% implied probability for owning Ox Alpha**, the anonymous stealth reasoning model that launched free on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026. Multiple independent technical probes—exact 95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches with the GLM-5 family, matching API error codes, video-token handling patterns, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s infrastructure and prior anonymous previews like Pony Alpha. The model’s 1M-token context, multimodal inputs, tool-calling features, and strong early coding benchmarks further support the GLM lineage in trader assessments. While no lab has issued an official claim, the skin-in-the-game odds reflect this accumulating forensic evidence over alternatives. A credible attribution from another provider, conflicting benchmarks, or a surprise official announcement could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$22,742Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Z.ai leads trader consensus at 91% implied probability for owning Ox Alpha**, the anonymous stealth reasoning model that launched free on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026. Multiple independent technical probes—exact 95-of-95 tokenizer vocabulary matches with the GLM-5 family, matching API error codes, video-token handling patterns, and code-style fingerprints—align closely with Z.ai’s infrastructure and prior anonymous previews like Pony Alpha. The model’s 1M-token context, multimodal inputs, tool-calling features, and strong early coding benchmarks further support the GLM lineage in trader assessments. While no lab has issued an official claim, the skin-in-the-game odds reflect this accumulating forensic evidence over alternatives. A credible attribution from another provider, conflicting benchmarks, or a surprise official announcement could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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