**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, is most likely to fall in the narrow 27–28°C range, aligning closely with the near-even market split (28°C at 50%, 27°C at 45%).** Persistent high humidity (dew points near 25–26°C), light southerly to southeasterly winds, and substantial overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to drier conditions. Official and model guidance (including runs showing 25–28°C lows) reflects stable late-summer subtropical influences with only scattered showers possible, preventing sharp drops. Model consensus and recent observations—where daily minima have hovered around 27–28°C amid similar moisture and wind patterns—drive the tight pricing, as traders weigh slight variations in exact clearing timing or urban heat retention. A modest edge toward 28°C may stem from the latest model runs showing marginally higher boundary-layer temperatures, while 26°C remains a lower-probability outcome if stronger winds or breaks in cloud cover allow more cooling. Resolution hinges on official Shanghai observations, with data releases and updated model guidance expected to refine probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Shanghai am 31. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Shanghai am 31. August?
27°C 52%
28°C 47%
26°C 5%
31°C <1%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
5%
27°C
52%
28°C
47%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 52%
28°C 47%
26°C 5%
31°C <1%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
$58 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$117 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$552 Vol.
5%
27°C
$2,414 Vol.
52%
28°C
$1,567 Vol.
47%
29°C
$243 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$129 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$472 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$58 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, is most likely to fall in the narrow 27–28°C range, aligning closely with the near-even market split (28°C at 50%, 27°C at 45%).** Persistent high humidity (dew points near 25–26°C), light southerly to southeasterly winds, and substantial overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to drier conditions. Official and model guidance (including runs showing 25–28°C lows) reflects stable late-summer subtropical influences with only scattered showers possible, preventing sharp drops.
Model consensus and recent observations—where daily minima have hovered around 27–28°C amid similar moisture and wind patterns—drive the tight pricing, as traders weigh slight variations in exact clearing timing or urban heat retention. A modest edge toward 28°C may stem from the latest model runs showing marginally higher boundary-layer temperatures, while 26°C remains a lower-probability outcome if stronger winds or breaks in cloud cover allow more cooling. Resolution hinges on official Shanghai observations, with data releases and updated model guidance expected to refine probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$5,981Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, is most likely to fall in the narrow 27–28°C range, aligning closely with the near-even market split (28°C at 50%, 27°C at 45%).** Persistent high humidity (dew points near 25–26°C), light southerly to southeasterly winds, and substantial overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to drier conditions. Official and model guidance (including runs showing 25–28°C lows) reflects stable late-summer subtropical influences with only scattered showers possible, preventing sharp drops.
Model consensus and recent observations—where daily minima have hovered around 27–28°C amid similar moisture and wind patterns—drive the tight pricing, as traders weigh slight variations in exact clearing timing or urban heat retention. A modest edge toward 28°C may stem from the latest model runs showing marginally higher boundary-layer temperatures, while 26°C remains a lower-probability outcome if stronger winds or breaks in cloud cover allow more cooling. Resolution hinges on official Shanghai observations, with data releases and updated model guidance expected to refine probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,981Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on August 31, 2026, is most likely to fall in the narrow 27–28°C range, aligning closely with the near-even market split (28°C at 50%, 27°C at 45%).** Persistent high humidity (dew points near 25–26°C), light southerly to southeasterly winds, and substantial overnight cloud cover are limiting radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to drier conditions. Official and model guidance (including runs showing 25–28°C lows) reflects stable late-summer subtropical influences with only scattered showers possible, preventing sharp drops. Model consensus and recent observations—where daily minima have hovered around 27–28°C amid similar moisture and wind patterns—drive the tight pricing, as traders weigh slight variations in exact clearing timing or urban heat retention. A modest edge toward 28°C may stem from the latest model runs showing marginally higher boundary-layer temperatures, while 26°C remains a lower-probability outcome if stronger winds or breaks in cloud cover allow more cooling. Resolution hinges on official Shanghai observations, with data releases and updated model guidance expected to refine probabilities ahead of the overnight period.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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