Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for the New York City area indicate overnight lows on August 15 are most likely to settle in the 70–73 °F range, aligning with the market’s leading 70–71 °F (46 %) and 72–73 °F (32 %) bins. Mid-August climatology for Central Park shows average minimum temperatures near 69 °F, and current atmospheric conditions—warm, humid southerly flow with limited frontal activity—support readings at or slightly above that baseline. Any tropical moisture or cloud cover from potential southern systems could modestly elevate the low, while clearer skies would allow radiational cooling toward the lower end of the favored range. Updated NWS and high-resolution model runs issued over the next 12–24 hours will provide the key data points for final market resolution.