Recent Met Office guidance indicates a minimum nighttime temperature near 14°C for London on August 7, with daytime highs around 25°C under mostly dry conditions and sunny spells. This aligns closely with trader consensus favoring 14–15°C outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the degree of overnight cloud cover, which modulates radiative cooling rates, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and the urban heat island effect that can elevate minimum readings by 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Model runs show limited spread in the 13–16°C range, with any clearer skies favoring the lower end and increased moisture or residual warmth pushing toward 15°C. Updated short-range forecasts expected overnight will refine these probabilities before market resolution.