**Short-term weather models currently favor a daily maximum of 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, 2026, underpinning the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.** August climatology in Wellington (austral winter) features average highs near 12–13°C, with frequent southerly flows and wind-driven mixing that often suppress daytime peaks. Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including timeanddate and Met Office guidance, indicate highs of 9–10°C on the 6th under scattered cloud and light-to-moderate winds, consistent with cooler-than-average conditions signaled in the NIWA seasonal outlook for the Wellington region. These model runs emphasize the influence of transient high-pressure ridging and limited northerly advection, reducing the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the long-term mean. Traders appear to be pricing the consensus of operational forecasts and ensemble guidance, which show low dispersion around the 10–11°C range two days ahead. Key variables that could shift probabilities include any last-minute model adjustments to wind direction or cloud cover before the observation window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 6. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 6. August?
11°C 49%
10°C 36%
12°C 13%
9°C 5%
NEU
NEU
6. Aug. 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
5%
10°C
36%
11°C
49%
12°C
13%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 49%
10°C 36%
12°C 13%
9°C 5%
NEU
NEU
6. Aug. 2026
5°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$109 Vol.
1%
8°C
$26 Vol.
2%
9°C
$184 Vol.
5%
10°C
$180 Vol.
36%
11°C
$224 Vol.
49%
12°C
$590 Vol.
13%
13°C
$10 Vol.
2%
14°C
$23 Vol.
1%
15°C or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term weather models currently favor a daily maximum of 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, 2026, underpinning the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.**
August climatology in Wellington (austral winter) features average highs near 12–13°C, with frequent southerly flows and wind-driven mixing that often suppress daytime peaks. Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including timeanddate and Met Office guidance, indicate highs of 9–10°C on the 6th under scattered cloud and light-to-moderate winds, consistent with cooler-than-average conditions signaled in the NIWA seasonal outlook for the Wellington region. These model runs emphasize the influence of transient high-pressure ridging and limited northerly advection, reducing the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the long-term mean.
Traders appear to be pricing the consensus of operational forecasts and ensemble guidance, which show low dispersion around the 10–11°C range two days ahead. Key variables that could shift probabilities include any last-minute model adjustments to wind direction or cloud cover before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$1,989Enddatum
6. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term weather models currently favor a daily maximum of 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, 2026, underpinning the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.**
August climatology in Wellington (austral winter) features average highs near 12–13°C, with frequent southerly flows and wind-driven mixing that often suppress daytime peaks. Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including timeanddate and Met Office guidance, indicate highs of 9–10°C on the 6th under scattered cloud and light-to-moderate winds, consistent with cooler-than-average conditions signaled in the NIWA seasonal outlook for the Wellington region. These model runs emphasize the influence of transient high-pressure ridging and limited northerly advection, reducing the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the long-term mean.
Traders appear to be pricing the consensus of operational forecasts and ensemble guidance, which show low dispersion around the 10–11°C range two days ahead. Key variables that could shift probabilities include any last-minute model adjustments to wind direction or cloud cover before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,989Enddatum
6. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term weather models currently favor a daily maximum of 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, 2026, underpinning the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes.** August climatology in Wellington (austral winter) features average highs near 12–13°C, with frequent southerly flows and wind-driven mixing that often suppress daytime peaks. Recent forecasts from multiple sources, including timeanddate and Met Office guidance, indicate highs of 9–10°C on the 6th under scattered cloud and light-to-moderate winds, consistent with cooler-than-average conditions signaled in the NIWA seasonal outlook for the Wellington region. These model runs emphasize the influence of transient high-pressure ridging and limited northerly advection, reducing the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the long-term mean. Traders appear to be pricing the consensus of operational forecasts and ensemble guidance, which show low dispersion around the 10–11°C range two days ahead. Key variables that could shift probabilities include any last-minute model adjustments to wind direction or cloud cover before the observation window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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